Labour Leads Conservatives on Who is Fit to Govern

As the Conservative Party grapples with the fall out from the resignation of its Deputy Chief Whip, nerves will not be calmed by new polling by Ipsos Mori showing that the party is on its lowest score since 2011 on being seen as ‘fit to govern’.

The organisation’s latest Political Monitor gives Labour an 11 point lead when it comes to headline voting intentions, with Labour on 41% compared to the Conservatives on 30%. In the wake of its by-election victory in Tiverton and Honiton, the Liberal Democrats are now on 15%.

On a whole host of issues, Labour has a lead over the Conservatives, including 33% saying Labour is fit to govern, compared to just 21% who say the same about the Conservatives.

Worryingly for Conservative headquarters, the party has a 19-point lead over Labour when people are asked to identify which party they perceive to be “divided” or “will promise anything to win votes.” In addition, the Tories have a 14-point lead when it comes to which party is seen as “extreme”, whilst it also leads Labour by 10 points when it comes to which party is seen as being “out of date”. None of this will be settling the nerves of Conservative MPs.

Commenting on the findings, Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, has said:

“While it remains to be seen whether the Conservatives' dip in voting intention figures is down to post-by election blues, a more worrying question for them is if more serious damage is being done to their party brand in the eyes of the public.  It’s not unusual to see Labour ahead on metrics such as being concerned about people in real need or looking after the interests of people like you, but it’s much rarer to see the Conservatives behind on being fit to govern or having a good team of leaders.  However, this mainly reflects the Conservatives’ ten-year lows on some of these scores, as well as growing perceptions of division in their ranks – Labour themselves still have more to do to convince the public that they are ready for government.”

At YouGov meanwhile, its latest national polling puts Labour on 36%, the Conservatives on 33% and the Liberal Democrats on 13%.

In its "best prime minister" question, Keir Starmer remains ahead on 33% (unchanged from the previous survey carried out between 22nd and 23rd June), while Boris Johnson has a 27% share of the vote (-1). 37% are unsure.

In addition, new MRP modelling by YouGov suggests that that the Conservatives would be set to lose 24 Con-Lib Dem battleground constituencies to the Liberal Democrats if an election were being held tomorrow (with Labour picking up another two). It goes on to note:

“Of the 64 English seats which the Conservatives hold and the Liberal Democrats won above 20% of the vote at the 2019 general election, our MRP model suggests that the Tories would lose a number of high-profile contests to the Liberal Democrats including Esher and Walton (the seat of deputy prime minister Dominic Raab), Surrey South West (seat of former party leadership contender and health secretary Jeremy Hunt), and Chippenham (seat of cabinet minister Michelle Donelan).

“In London, Labour would pick up the marginal seats of Kensington and Cities of London and Westminster.”

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