A Turbulent Week on the Political Markets

Turbulence in the financial markets this week has been equally matched by a dramatic week on the political markets.

As the Labour faithful gathered in Liverpool this week for its annual conference there was a clear air of expectation that the party is on the brink of winning the next election. It’s an expectation based on a set of dramatic polls out this week.

Most dramatic of all was YouGov’s poll for The Times giving Labour a 33 point lead,  the highest figure the party has ever recorded in any published poll since the late 1990s.

The poll, published on Thursday, put Labour on 54% (up 9 points compared with the start of the week), with the Conservatives on 21% (down 7 points) and the Liberal Democrats on 7% (down 2 points).

Analysing the reasons for Labour’s lead, YouGov shows among those who voted Conservative at the 2019 election, 17% said they would now vote Labour. It goes on to note that just 37% who voted Conservative last time plan to do so at the next election.

Placing the figure in context, YouGov goes on to note: “In historical perspective, this 17% ‘Con to Lab’ switching figure far eclipses the 5% rate of switching we saw when, under Ed Miliband, Labour were consistently the Tories by more than 10 points in 2012. The current situation is more comparable to the around 16% of 1992 Conservative voters who switched to Labour in 1997 under Tony Blair, according to the British Election Study.”

Digging deeper, YouGov observes that 26% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 said they do not know how they would vote if an election were held tomorrow, with 9% saying they simply would not vote at all.

Interestingly, the figures also show that 50% of those who voted Liberal Democrat at the last General Election said they plan to vote Labour.  

At Savanta ComRes, its polling for LabourList suggests that Labour is on course for a 56 seat majority in the House of Commons at the next election.

The MRP modelling puts Labour on 45%, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 33%.

Savanta ComRes goes on to note: “The model suggested that, with such a lead, Labour would regain many so-called 'Red Wall' seats – constituencies traditionally considered to be safe Labour seats but many of which returned Conservative MPs at the last election – including Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Blyth Valley, Sedgefield and Workington.

“The seat-by-seat analysis also showed Labour taking seats held by prominent Tories MPs, including those that were thought to have considered leadership bids in Steve Baker (Wycombe) and Ben Wallace (Wyre and Preston North), and the former Prime Minister, Boris Johnson (Uxbridge and South Ruislip).

“However, the polling did show some traditional bellwether constituencies - those that tend to indicate the winner of an election - not going Labour's way, with the Conservatives holding Dartford, Portsmouth North, Nuneaton and Great Yarmouth.”

The polling goes on to show that in 357 constituencies currently held by the Conservatives, in 279 of them voters said they trusted Labour more when it comes to polices concerning the cost-of-living. This included 132 constituencies “in which the model shows Labour not gaining from the Conservatives at the next election.”

Savanta ComRes continues: “This lead over a policy area likely to define the next election, though, is not replicated to the same extent when it comes to the 'Best Prime Minister' metric. Keir Starmer leads Liz Truss in just 53 of the 357 current Conservative-held seats, with the MRP model indicating that Labour are the most likely winner in 52 of those at the next election.”

Survation’s latest polling this week gave Labour the biggest lead the organisation has ever recorded. It puts Labour on 49%, the Conservatives on 28% and the Liberal Democrats on 11%.

Just weeks into the job, Survation reports that Liz Truss has dropped to a net favourability rating of -32% from -25%. It notes that this reaches “levels of unpopularity seen by Boris Johnson at the lowest point of his premiership in July.” In contrast the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer, has a net approval rating of +8%.

Asked to choose which of the Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng and the Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, they trusted most to run the economy, 48% said Reeves compared to 23% said Kwarteng.

In total, 65% of those polled by Survation said the Chancellor’s mini budget had made the economy worse.

And finally, to add to the grim week for the Conservatives, data from Ipsos Mori finds that 80% of those questioned feel the economy is in a poor state. 68% said they were not confident that the Government has a good long-term economic plan for the country.

Further polling by psos Mori also shows that the public can envisage Keir Starmer being Prime Minister, with 51% saying that it is likely that he will win the keys to Downing Street. 

Ipsos Mori goes on to note: “Two in five (41%) think a Labour government led by Keir Starmer would do a better job running the country than the current government. This has increased from 36% last month (when asked about the Johnson government) and is the highest proportion saying this since Ipsos began asking the question in June 2021. One in four say a Labour government would do a worse job (24%, -1 since August) and the same proportion say it would make no difference (24%, -2).”