Scots Back Independence According to Polling

It is just weeks since the Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Government and Parliament do not have the power to legislate for a formal referendum on independence. Since then, SNP MP after SNP MP have continued to question UK Government Ministers about why they are standing in the way of the mandate the party has repeatedly received for a second vote at UK and Scottish General Elections.

Whilst Rishi Sunak has made clear he will not be allowing a further independence referendum anytime soon, what do the polls now say?

Ipsos Mori this week provided an answer, thanks to its data for STV. It reported that among those with a voting intention and very likely to vote, 56% say they would vote Yes to Scotland becoming an independence country, up 6 points since May. 44% said they would vote No.

Ipsos Mori goes on to note: “The SNP remain the dominant party in Scotland – 51% of those likely to vote say they would vote for them in an immediate General Election. Labour remains in second place on vote share, at 25%, while the Conservatives have slipped further to 13%.

“Treating the next election as a de facto referendum on independence appears unlikely to dent the SNP’s vote share: indeed, 53% of those likely to vote say they would vote SNP in this situation. With a further 2% saying they would vote for the Scottish Green Party, this would take the vote share for pro-independence parties to 55%.”

This was followed later in the week by polling conducted by Find Out Now putting support for independence at 54% when those who didn’t not know how they would vote were excluded. 46% said they would vote No to independence according to this poll.  

Responding to the data, The Scotsman has warned: “these figures are another wake-up call to unionists, not just in Scotland, but across the UK, some of whom appear to have been lulled into a false send of security by years of SNP government at Holyrood without their main cause being significantly advanced.”

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