Reasons to be Cheerful for Labour Across the Country

For polling geeks out there, such as me, today is like a feast with a huge amount of data to pour over.

Let’s start with Opinium’s latest polling for The Observer.   

When it comes to headline voting intentions across the UK, Opinium gives Labour a 16-point lead with 44% saying they would vote Labour at a general election, followed by 28% saying they would vote Conservative.

Just 18% of those questioned said they approved of the way the Government is handling the Brexit process. In contrast, 56% disapprove of it. Delving deeper, the figures show that 41% of those who voted Conservative at the 2019 election disapprove of the way the Government is handling Brexit, a figure which rises to 45% among all those who voted leave in the EU referendum.  Overall, 72% of those surveyed said they felt that Brexit had gone either worse than they had anticipated or plain badly.  

With Nicola Sturgeon having announced her resignation this week, 64% of those questioned by Opinium in Scotland said she had done a good job as leader of the SNP compared to 31% saying she has done a bad job.

Delving deeper into Scottish politics, Survation has published its first poll of Scottish voters since Nicola Sturgeon made her shock announcement on Wednesday.

When it comes to headline voting intentions, it continues to give the SNP a healthy lead, with 43% of respondents saying they would vote for the party at a UK general election, followed by the 30% saying they would vote Scottish Labour.

Outlining the progress however that Labour in Scotland is making, Survation notes: “Labour have gained vote share from both the Conservatives (19% of 2019 Tory voters say they will now vote Labour) and the SNP (11% say they will switch to Labour) since the last election. Labour threaten to be on twice the vote share of the Conservatives in Scotland – a marked improvement from being neck and neck from September 2020 through September 2021.”

Meanwhile, Ipsos Mori has published polling which suggests that 54% of the public in Scotland believe Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation will have a negative impact on the case for Scottish independence. 61% say that her leaving will have a negative impact on the SNP. Despite this, 69% said that she was right to step down.

Ipsos Mori goes on to note: “Reflecting on Nicola Sturgeon’s time as First Minister, three in five believe she has changed Scotland for the better (59%), against a third who say for the worse (31%). Fewer than one in ten (8%) think she has made no difference.

Finally, Labour will be cheering an analysis by the polling guru, Professor Sir John Curtice from Strathclyde University suggesting the party could, and I emphasise, “could”  get 25 seats in Scotland at a UK general election.

Writing for The Sun, he notes: “Labour have been making gains in the polls north of the border, but they are still 15 points behind the SNP, who are on 44 points.

“If voters don’t budge then that could mean Labour pick up just three more seats in Scotland to add to their single MP at the moment, taking their total to just four.

“This would be a disappointment for Sir Keir, who would be left with the Herculean task of trying to win a Westminster majority by chalking up a massive poll lead over the Tories in England and Wales instead.

“BUT if there is just a five per cent swing from the SNP, Labour could get 16 Scottish MPs.

“And if Labour closes the gap on the SNP entirely, it could get 25 Scottish seats.

“That would mean Sir Keir could win an overall majority at a general election with just half the UK-wide poll lead he needs at the moment.”

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