A Sunak Bounce Following the Windsor Agreement?

It’s been a week of two halves for the Prime Minister.

On Monday he started on a high with the announcement of the new Windsor Agreement, welcomed across the political spectrum as answering many of the problems created by Brexit in Northern Ireland.

By the end of the week however, the focus returned, thanks to What’s App messages published in The Telegraph, to how the Government handled the COVID pandemic and whether Boris Johnson lied to Parliament about parties in Downing Street during periods of national lockdowns.

Based on questions asked between the 1st and 3rd March, Opinium’s latest polling for The Observer reveals that when it comes to headline voting intentions  Labour are unchanged from a fortnight ago on 44% with the Conservatives down 1 point on 27%.

When it comes to Rishi Sunak’s personal approval rating he has a net rating of -8, with 30% of respondents approving of the job he is doing compared to 38% disapproving of it. Opinium notes that this represents “his highest net approval since mid-December.”

The Labour Leader, Keir Starmer meanwhile has a net approval rating of +2, up from 0 two weeks ago.

When it comes to the Windsor Agreement, Opinium finds that 32% of those questioned said they had not heard much about it, and 28% said it was neither a good not a bad deal. Marginally more (21%) said it was a bad deal than said it was a good deal (19%).

Despite this, the figures show that 38% of respondents want MPs to vote for the deal with just 14% saying they would prefer MPs to reject it. 48% did not know how they want MPs to vote when they get the opportunity to consider the Agreement.

Finally, Opinium reports that the Agreement has similar levels of support across the Brexit divide. 43% of those who voted to remain in the EU would prefer MPs vote for the deal vs 16% against. Among those who voted to leave the EU, 42% said they would prefer MPs vote for the deal vs 13% against.

YouGov meanwhile has noted a bounce in the Prime Minister’s popularity. This week it observed: “the number of people holding a favourable view of the prime minister has seen a seven point increase, from 27% in mid-February to 34% now. Over the same time period the proportion with an unfavourable view has fallen from 61% to 55%.”

It continued: “The popularity boost extends across the political spectrum. Among Tory voters favourability is up seven points from 50% to 57%, while among Labour voters it is up from 12% to 19%. More than four in ten Leave voters (43%) now have a positive opinion of the prime minister, up from 38%, while among Remain voters the increase has been from 25% to 32%.”

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