No Budget Bounce for the Conservatives

If the Government was hoping for a post Budget bounce, today’s polling by Opinium for The Observer will make for disappointing reading.  

When it comes to headline voting intentions, the Conservatives on 29% and Labour on 44% are both unchanged from where they were in Opinium’s last poll two week ago.

A slight chink of light for the Conservative Party will be the fact that whilst 27% believe that the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer and Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves would be most trusted to handle the economy, slightly more, 29% opted for the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

However digging deeper 33% say a Labour government led by Keir Starmer would be best at spending government money efficiently compared to 25% saying the same about a Conservative government led by Rishi Sunak.

32% say Labour at present would be best at running the economy, compared to 30% saying the Conservatives. 35% say Keir Starmer’s Labour Party would be best at improving their own financial situation, compared to 20% saying Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party. 31% however say they feel the Conservatives are best placed to bring down the national debt and deficit just ahead of the 30% saying Labour would be.

When it comes to public services, 43% of those questioned say Labour would be best at improving them compared to 17% saying the Conservatives are.

Looking at the Budget as a whole, just 18% said it was ‘good’ compared to 33% saying it was ‘bad’.

Diving into the detail, just 26% believe it was a good idea to scrap any tax paid on pension contributions for people whose pension pot is valued at over £1.07 million. 43% said it was a bad idea. However the Conservatives can take heart that:

  • 63% say it was a good idea to extend the free childcare of 30 hours a week that is currently available for 3-4 year olds and to 1-2 year olds by 2025.
  • 75% support the continuation of the freeze on fuel duty.
  • 85% felt it was a good idea that the Government will continue its support for household energy bills for a further three months.
  • 45% support increasing Corporation Tax rates from 19% to 25%.
  • 73% believe the Government’s plans to increase funding for the Potholes Fund by 40% to help councils fix potholes is a good idea.

Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 46% of those polled feel the economy is set to get worse, despite the Chancellor’s positive rhetoric on Wednesday. Just 21% believe it will get better. Over the same period, 40% believe their own personal finances will get worse, compared to 19% who believe they will get worse.

Separately, with the Prime Minister making stopping the boats carrying asylum seekers across the Channel a priority, just 17% believe the government’s policies on asylum will improve the situation. 23% say they will worsen it.   

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