Scottish Public Prefer Kate Forbes for First Minister

Following a week which has seen a number of feisty debates between those vying to replace Nicola Sturgeon as Leader of the SNP, new polling by Ipsos for Channel 4 News will be bringing some cheer for the Finance Secretary, Kate Forbes.

Among the public as a whole, 32% said they would pick Forbes as the best First Minister of the three candidates, followed by 24% who said the same about the Health Secretary, Humza Yousaf and 8% opting for Ash Regan.

However, among those who voted SNP at the last Scottish Parliamentary election in 2021, 33% would opt for Humza Yousaf to be the First Minister followed by 32% saying the same about Kate Forbes.

Among the public as a whole 53% trust Kate Forbes a great deal or a fair amount to stand up for Scotland’s interests in discussions with the UK Government, compared to 47% saying the same about Humza Yousaf and 34% opting for Ash Regan. Ipsos continues: “Among SNP voters, Forbes and Yousaf are both well regarded when it comes to standing up for Scotland’s interests: 63% trust each of them to do this, while 44% trust Ash Regan to do the same.”

Ipsos goes on to note: “When asked what they would like to hear the leadership candidates discuss, the NHS and the cost of living are at the forefront of the public’s mind, mentioned by 81% and 76% respectively. This is followed by 59% wanting to hear about their plans for growing Scotland’s economy and 55% about their plans for education and schools.

“SNP voters from the last Holyrood election are also most keen to hear about the NHS and the cost of living, but are then more likely to mention plans for securing Scottish independence (60%, compared with 29% of the public overall), followed by growing Scotland’s economy (58%) and reducing poverty and inequality (57%).

“Just 12% of the public say they want to hear about the candidates’ plans for transgender rights/ the Gender Recognition Act, rising to 16% among SNP voters.”

With Kate Forbes religious views having played a dominant role in the early part of her campaign, 59% of the public in Scotland said they felt uncomfortable about politicians voting on policies that affect people’s marriage and relationships according to their personal religious beliefs. This figure rises to 61% among SNP voters.  

Separately, new polling by  Redfield & Wilton Strategies suggests that 51% of people in Scotland would vote no to independence in another referendum compared to 42% saying they would vote yes.

49% said they would be opposed to a referendum on Scottish independence being held in the next year, while 34% would support one in this timeframe. Redfield & Wilton continues: “Given a broader timeframe of five years, the result is similar: 44% (+4 from November) would oppose and 37% (-9) would support a referendum on Scottish independence being held in the next five years.”

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