End of Political Term Report

As MPs head off for a two week Easter break and begin an intense period of campaigning ahead of the local elections, Opinium has published its latest fortnightly polling for The Observer providing a handy end of term report card.

When it comes to headline voting intentions, Labour enjoy a 15-point lead over the Conservatives. Labour is on 44% compared to the Conservatives on 29%.  

Asked to what extent they approved or disapproved of the way Rishi Sunak is handling his job as Prime Minister, 28% said ‘approve’ compared to 43% saying ‘disapprove’.

In contrast, 31% of those questioned said they approved of the way Keir Starmer was handling his job as Leader of the Labour Party compared to 33% saying their disapproved.

Questioned about what they felt the likely outcome would be of the next General Election, just 8% think it will result in an outright Conservative majority with 14% predicting a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. 30% said they felt a Labour majority was the most likely outcome compared to 20% forecasting a hung parliament with Labour as the biggest single party in the House of Commons.

Meanwhile, on its twitter feed, Opinium notes: “Labour/Starmer are more trusted to handle almost all areas of policy apart from defence and terrorism, where they are tied with the Conservatives/Sunak. Labour’s strongest leads are on healthcare, public services and inequality.”

YouGov has equally good news for Labour. According to its latest poll Labour are on 46% (down 3 points since YouGov’s last poll between 21st and  22nd March.) The Conservatives are up 3 points on 26%.

Looking to Scotland, at the end of Humza Yousaf’s first week as SNP Leader and First Minister, polling by Savanta for The Scotsman newspaper suggests there has been no boost in the SNP’s fortunes. When it comes to voting intentions for a UK General Election, 39% of those polled in Scotland said they would vote SNP, down 3 points from February. Labour is on 33%, up 1 point with the Conservatives on 19%, up 2 points. The Scotsman notes that if replicated at an actual General Election it would see the SNP loose 18 seats in the House of Commons to Scottish Labour.

When it comes to independence meanwhile, Savanta  reports that with undecideds excluded, 52% would vote no in another independence reference compared to 48% saying they would support Scotland breaking away from the UK.  

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