SNP Losing Grip on Scotland as Wales Backs Labour By big Margins

As the SNP continues to feel the shocks of the ongoing scandal around the alleged mismanagement of the party’s finances, new polling of Scottish voters by YouGov suggests a slump in the party’s support at Holyrood.

When it comes to headline voting intentions for the constituency vote for the Scottish Parliament, 38% say they would vote SNP, down from 43% last month. Scottish Labour meanwhile are on 30%, up from 26%. The Conservatives are on 16%, pretty much unchanged from the 15% it polled last month.

For the regional list vote for the Scottish Parliament, YouGov finds that 26% of Scots voters would vote Labour, up from 25% last month, whilst the SNP are on 30%, down from 35%. The Scottish Conservatives are on 17%, up from 16% in March.

When it comes to headline voting intentions for Westminster, Labour are on 28% with the SNP on 37% and the Conservatives on 17%.

Asked how they would vote in a future independence referendum, 54% of those questioned said they would oppose independence, with 46% supporting it.

YouGov goes on to note of the new SNP Leader and Scottish First Minister: “While Humza Yousaf is only just getting his feet under the table, reviews of his premiership to date are negative. Only 19% of Scots believe he is doing well, compared to 44% who say he is doing badly. One in three Scots (36%) are currently unsure how well they think the new first minister is doing.

“Among 2019 SNP voters, Yousaf’s ratings are relatively lukewarm. One in three (32%) believe he is doing a good job, but 28% say he is doing a bad one. Four in ten (40%) answered “don’t know”.

“There is also a general expectation that Yousaf will not be able to live up to his predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon. Four in ten (41%) believe he will do a worse job, compared to 35% who think he will perform similarly and only 9% who expect him to be better.

“Among 2019 SNP voters, 46% expect Yousaf to be worse than Sturgeon, compared to 36% who think they will be comparable and 6% who say better.”

Meanwhile, in Wales, Redfield and Wilton Strategies this week published its inaugural poll of Welsh voters suggesting Labour is in a strong position going into next year’s likely general election.

When it comes to headline voting intentions for Westminster, Labour are on 44% with the Conservatives on 24% and Plaid Cymru on 12%.

When it comes to the constituency vote for the Senedd Labour are on 41% with the Conservatives on 21% and Plaid Cymru on 20%. Redfield and Wilton notes also: “The Labour Party also leads when voters are asked who they would vote for on their regional list ballot. Labour is on 32%, with Plaid Cymru in second on 23%, and the Conservatives in third on 22%.”

Asked how they would vote in a hypothetical independence referendum, 60% of those polled in Wales said they would vote no, compared to 29% saying they would vote yes.

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