How Should We Read the Local Election Results?

As many people across the country prepare to head to the polls for local council elections this Thursday, how best should we judge the performance of the parties when the results come through?

One marker will be how the parties do compared to the last time many of the council seats up for election this week were contested in 2019. It was a period when both Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May were both unpopular, with the process of leaving the EU deadlocked in Parliament. Just months after the elections Boris Johnson would become Prime Minister.  

According to a note by the House of Commons Library, in 2019, both Labour and the Conservatives were tided on 31% of the vote each, with the Liberal Democrats on 17%.

Another point of reference will be how the parties do compared to last year’s local elections when Boris Johnson’s popularity was dwindling amidst the ongoing ‘partygate’ allegations. Labour secured 35% of the vote compared to the Conservatives on 33% and the Liberal Democrats on 17%.

Alternatively, with Labour looking on course to win a general election next year, we can look back at 1996, the year before Labour last made the leap from opposition to government. These elections cemented the expectations of Tony Blair romping home to victory, with Labour on 43% of the vote compared to the Conservatives on just 29% and the Liberal Democrats on 24%.

Meanwhile, YouGov has published polling using its MRP modelling to predict the results of the elections in a number of key councils.  

A summary of its predications can be found on its website, but it concludes: “Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats look set to take a host of council seats, and control of a number of councils, from Tory hands.”

And finally, as the parties engage in the usual expectation management ahead of the polls, Professors Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings, Associate Members at the Nuffield Politics Research Centre at the University of Oxford have forecast the following:


·       For the Conservatives, a bad night would be the loss of 1,000 or more seats, 750 lost council seats would be a better night for the party than the polls would suggest whilst 500 losses would represent simple mid-term blues. The loss of 300 or fewer seats would suggest Labour is failing to prosper.

 

·       For Labour, picking up 750 or more council seats would be the party’s best result for over a decade, 450 gained seats would suggest little improvement than last year whilst 250 gains would suggest the party is doing worse than the polls suggest. Gaining 150 or fewer seats would suggest the party is going backwards.


·       For the Liberal Democrats, picking up 150 or more council seats would suggest the party is making inroads in Tory areas, 50-100 gains would point to only modest progress for the party whilst picking up under 50 seats would suggest the party is struggling to pose a threat to anyone.  

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