How Well Are Labour Really Doing?

Off the back of last week’s local elections, the polling guru, Professor Sir John Curtice suggested that had this been a national election, the projected national share of the vote would have given Labour a 9 point lead over the Conservatives.

According to the data, Labour would have been on 35% of the vote with the Conservatives on 26%, the Liberal Democrats on 20% and other parties on 19%.

With the dust now settled, writing for The Independent, Sir John suggests that based on last week’s results, Labour is on course for a majority in the next House of Commons of just one seat.

Noting that results collected by the BBC suggested that had it been a general election Labour would be ahead in the key parliamentary seats of Calder Valley, Colne Valley, Dewsbury, Ipswich, and Plymouth Moor View, Sir John notes: “On average the swing from Conservative to Labour since the last general election in these key marginals was 12 per cent – precisely the swing that on the current constituency boundaries Labour might well need to secure an overall majority of one.”

He goes on to write however: “On average across 27 constituencies where it is possible to use the BBC’s data to compare the parties’ performances in the local elections with that in the 2019 general election, the Conservative share of the vote was down 19 points while Labour’s own tally was unchanged.”

Somewhat pointedly, Sir John concludes: “As well as claiming that the local election results showed that Labour was on course to win an overall parliamentary majority, Labour spokespersons were also keen to argue that they demonstrated that Sir Keir Starmer’s success in changing his party has transformed its electoral prospects. In truth, the local election results raise questions about that claim too. What is much more apparent is the scale of the public’s disenchantment with the Conservatives.

“Maybe that will prove enough to deliver Labour victory when the next general election comes – but perhaps it would not be wise for the party to rely on it.”

But how does the projected national share of the vote for Labour compare to previous local election results?

35% of the vote this year is the same as the projected national share of the vote Labour secured in last year’s local elections.

Looking at previous local elections which, the following year, saw a party move from opposition to government, Labour’s nine-point lead doesn’t compare too favourably.

In 1996, before Labour’s general election landslide in 1997, the local election results gave Labour a projected national share of the vote of 43%, a 14-point lead over the Conservatives.

In 2009, the year before Labour lost office at the General Election to be replaced by the Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition, the Conservatives had a projected national share of the vote of 35%, 13 points ahead of the Labour Party.

With Redfield and Wilton Strategies’ yesterday suggesting Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is now the joint lowest it has been since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, Labour would be wise not to count their chickens before they are hatched.