Labour Ahead in Marginal Seats Says New Poll

Labour is leading in the 144 parliamentary constituencies likely to decide the next General Election according to new polling by Opinium for the UK 2040 Options project, overseen by the Nesta thinktank. 

It questioned 4,000 voters living in key marginal constituencies. Outlining the methodology used the project notes: “At the next general election, Labour would need to win in an additional 124 parliamentary constituencies to achieve an overall majority. We polled the 124 constituencies that Labour came closest to winning (ie, where they were in second place) in the 2019 general election. We also polled the 100 constituencies most narrowly won by the Conservatives in 2019. There is a significant degree of overlap between these two groups of constituencies so the total number polled in our data is 144. We believe these 144 constituencies (126 of which were won by the Conservatives in 2019) are a good representation of the “battlegrounds”; these are the people and places most likely to decide which party wins the next election.”

It finds that in these seats, Labour are on 39% among those questioned about how they would vote at the next election, compared to 32% opting for the Conservatives. This would, according to the write up, represent a 10-point swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the 2019 General Election.

It goes on to note: “Among these battleground constituencies, Labour and the Conservatives are essentially neck and neck in the South West (34% to 36%) and the East of England (36% to 35%). Labour’s lead on the Conservatives is 8 points in the North West (43% to 35%), 17 points in Yorkshire (46% to 29%), 16 points in the North East (51% to 35%) and 15 points ahead in the Midlands (48% to 33%). In Scotland, Labour are on 32%, behind the SNP on 37%.”

Among all those questioned, the biggest single driver of how people intend to vote was a dislike of other parties, cited by 39% of respondents.

Focussing on the issues of most concern to respondents, the write up notes that across almost every region, other than Wales, the cost of living is the most important issue. In Wales health was cited as the most important. In second place overall was ensuring the NHS is fully funded and staffed. In third place was ensuring energy prices were affordable for ordinary people.

Meanwhile, Opinum’s regular fortnightly poll for The Observer puts Labour on 41% when it comes to headline voting intentions nationally, with the Conservatives on 29%.

And following Boris Johnson’s decision to step down as an MP, a snap  poll by YouGov suggests that 62% of the public believe he was right to resign.  

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