Polls Make for Grim Reading for Rishi Sunak

In last week’s Sunday Times, Tim Shipman and Tom Calver painted a picture of a Prime Minister who is feeling frustrated and unable to control events. 

In their piece looking inside Number10, they note: “In the past week five senior figures close to the prime minister, in a professional and personal capacity, have all described a man who feels thwarted by events — particularly stubborn inflation and the continual distractions caused by those around Boris Johnson.”

The Prime Minister’s mood is unlikely to be improved as a result of the latest batch of polling.

Nationally, according to YouGov’s latest poll conducted between the 5th and 6th July,  Labour are now on 47% of the vote, up 1 point compared to the week before. The Conservatives are on 22%, down 2 points.

Meanwhile, Keir Starmer now has a 10-point lead over Rishi Sunak when it comes to who people think the best Prime Minister would be. The Labour leader is favoured by 34% of those polled, up 4 points from last week.  Rishi Sunak is unchanged on 24%.

With by-elections set for 20th July in three Conservative held seats meanwhile, the polling makes for equally bleak reading for Number 10.

In the Yorkshire seat of Selby and Ainsty, vacated by the departure of key Boris Johnson ally, Nigel Adams, Labour is thought to be increasingly confident of victory.  According to a poll  by JL Partners for the Yorkshire Post, Labour are on 41% compared to the Conservatives on 29%. For the purposes of context, at the 2019 election, the Conservatives held the seat with 60% of the vote, with Labour trailing on 25%.

In Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, a  poll by JL Partners for 38 Degrees puts Labour on 41% with the Conservatives on 33%.

Meanwhile, in the Somerset set of Somerton and Frome, the Liberal Democrats are looking set to regain a seat the party held between 1997 and 2015 in a by-election triggered by the resignation of David Warburton following allegations surrounding harassment and drug use.

Pointing to the Liberal Democrats as the favourites to take the seat, the Somerset Live website notes: “Bookmaker William Hill has now opened betting on the outcome of the by-election to be held on July 20 - and the current odds reveal one clear front-runner. The Liberal Democrats are priced at just 1/20 to take the seat.”

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