Labour is Back in Scotland

Looking too much into the results of one by-election to understand what it means for politics across the country can be a hazardous business. 

Health warning over however, as Labour prepares for its annual conference in Liverpool, the party has every right to feel chipper following the Rutherglen and Hamilton West election, and this is why.

First of all there is the share of the vote Scottish Labour secured. At almost 59%, it was not only just over 24% higher than the share it got at the 2019 election, but it is almost exactly the same as the 61% of the vote Labour won in the seat in 2010. That, of course, was the last election when Labour dominated in a UK general election in Scotland, winning 41 out of 59 seats north of the border.

Then there is the swing in votes. At just over 20% from the SNP to Labour, this would, according to Professor Sir John Curtice from Strathclyde University, lead Scottish Labour to again win over 40 seats in the UK Parliament if it was replicated uniformly across Scotland.

Sir John has noted: “This result very firmly confirms the direction of travel indicated by the polls and that Labour do pose a serious challenge to the SNP’s continued dominance at Westminster.

“That potentially has implications for the overall outcome in the general election because if that were to happen, they would find it easier to get an overall majority.”

And what of those polls in Scotland? According to Redfield and Wilton Strategies Labour really is hot on the heels of the SNP. When it comes to headline voting intentions among Scottish voters for a UK General Election, the SNP are on 34%, down from the 45% share of the vote it won in 2019, with Scottish Labour on 32%, up significantly from the 18.6% of the vote won in 2019.

Meanwhile across the UK, YouGov’s latest poll suggests the Conservatives are not enjoying any sort of post-conference boost in their fortunes. It puts the party on 24%, unchanged since its last poll at the end of September with Labour also unchanged, and ahead significantly, on 45%.

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