The Polling Mountain Faced by the Conservatives

As the Conservative faithful gathers in Manchester for the party’s annual conference, The Independent will be a source of glum reading.

Writing for it the polling guru, Professor Sir John Curtice from Strathclyde University concludes that: “the Conservatives appear to be heading unwaveringly on a course that leads towards heavy defeat in an election that is now at most little more than a year away.”

He goes on to warn that the party’s strategy over the past few weeks of finding ‘wedge’ issues such as net zero and immigration to distinguish itself from Labour is unlikely to succeed. As Curtice notes: “If the Conservatives are to regain their lost support, they need to crack the hard nut of solving Britain’s fiscal and economic crisis – a weak economy, an inflationary spiral, and poorly functioning public services. That means cutting NHS times as well as halving inflation. Trying to focus voters’ attention elsewhere, such as on so-called “wedge issues” like immigration and net zero, is unlikely to be enough.”

On the flip side, polling out this weekend by Opinium for The Observer is giving some, slight, room for cheer for Conservative members. When it comes to headline voting intentions, Labour is on 39% with the Conservatives on 29%. Yes, that’s a 10 point lead for Labour, but that is 5 points down from where it was a fortnight ago and as Dominic Penna, Political Correspondent at The Telegraph has noted it’s the smallest lead Labour has had since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister.

When it comes to the PM’s net approval rating, Opinium puts him on -28%, compared to the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer on -10%. Starmer is also the preferred candidate for Prime Minister, with 28% saying they would prefer him in Downing Street, compared to 21% saying the same about Sunak.

With Labour leading the Conservatives when it comes to which party the public favours on a wide range of policy issues, the poll finds that 41% think Labour under Keir Starmer is prepared to govern compared to 36% saying the same about the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak.

Meanwhile, the poll, as reported by The Observer suggests that 34% of Conservative voters are currently intending to vote for other parties. The paper notes: “Voters who backed the Conservatives in 2019 in the Midlands and south are now the least likely to stick with the party at the next general election – only 61% and 60% respectively will stay with the party. One in five voters who backed the Tories in 2019 in the south of England said they had switched to Labour or the Lib Dems.”

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