The Public Now Think Keir Starmer Will be Prime Minister

Following Labour’s stunning victories in the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections, the polling guru, Professor Sir John Curtice declared the Conservative losses as “exceptional.” He went on to say, ominously for Conservative HQ: “The Conservative party faces the serious prospect of losing the next general election heavily and maybe even more heavily than they did in 1997.” 

What makes the situation faced by the Conservatives even more difficult is the fact that Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire are just one bit of a wider polling puzzle pointing to a heavy defeat at the General Election.

This week for example, Deltapoll published data giving Labour a 20 point polling lead, with Labour on 47% compared to the Conservatives on 27%.

Redfield and Wilton Strategies’ latest  poll is slightly better for the Conservatives, in as much as it gives Labour a 14 point lead, with Labour on 43% compared to the Conservatives on 29%.

However, YouGov’s research gives Labour a 23 point lead, with the party on 47%, compared to the Conservatives  languishing on just 24%.

But for those who think the hype around Labour looking to be the inevitable winners at the next election is being whipped up by the media, I bring bad news.

According to polling by Ipsos Mori, 56% of the public now believe the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer is likely to become Prime Minister. Among those who voted Conservative in the 2019 election, 51% now believe Starmer will become Prime Minister.

Asked to rate Rishi Sunak’s chances of winning the next election, just 22% think this to be likely, compared to 63% saying it would be unlikely.

Following the party conferences, Ipsos Mori found that among all voters, just 21% felt the Conservative conference went well for the Prime Minister, compared to 32% saying it went badly.

When it comes to Labour’s conference, 39% of all voters said it went well for Keir Starmer, with 15% saying it went badly.

Interestingly, more Conservative voters from 2019 (37%) believe the Labour conference went well for Keir Starmer as said the same for Rishi Sunak and the Conservative conference (36%).

The poll goes on to report that among all voters 29% said that Keir Starmer’s conference speech left them with a positive impression of the Labour leader, with 30% saying the speech gave them a positive impression of the Labour Party as a whole.

Among all voters again, just 17% said that Rishi Sunak’s speech left a positive impression on them of the Prime Minister, with 16% saying it left a positive impression of the Conservative Party more broadly.

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