A Chink of Light for the Conservatives?

Following a party conference which failed to provide the party with the lift off it hoped for, the Kings Speech on Tuesday provides one of the last remaining opportunities before the election for Rishi Sunak to seize the electoral initiative.

The size of the challenge facing the Conservatives is stark.

This week alone, when it comes to headline voting intentions, Redfield and Wilton Strategies published polling giving Labour a 20 point lead, with Labour on 45% followed by the Conservatives on 25%.

Deltapoll put Labour on 46% with the Conservatives on 25%, with 45% saying a Labour Government would be best at handling the economy compared to 31% who said the same about the Tories.

YouGov meanwhile gave Labour a massive 24-point lead over the Conservatives. According to its poll Labour is on 48% with the Conservatives on 24%.

However, could there by an albeit it small glimmer of hope for Conservative headquarters?

According to an article by Patrick English, Director of Political Analysis among those who voted Conservative at the 2019 general election, 40% say they will definitely vote for the party again with 12% planning to vote Reform UK, 11% opting for Labour, 7% saying they will not vote, and almost a quarter (23%) say they “don’t know” how they will vote.

Patrick English notes: “If Labour were indeed to win over these one in nine Conservative voters, that would eclipse the proportion of Labour voters who Johnson managed to flip (around 8%), but would be fewer than the proportion of 1992 Conservative voters who Blair moved into Labour’s column in 1997 (around 16%). Labour under Starmer need something like a Blair-level performance at the next election to simply get back into government, let alone build a sizeable majority.”

He continues: “The fact that the uncertain group is twice the size of the group who have switched directly to Labour provides some light for the Conservatives as they seek to eat into a substantial Labour polling lead. If they were to be brought back into the fold, Labour’s polling lead would quickly evaporate.”

According to the article, YouGov research from previous elections “suggest “don’t know” voters generally return to their previous party.”

Going on to analyse how likely it is that those who voted Conservative in 2019 who now say they don’t know how they will vote are to return to the Tories at the next election the piece notes that:


·       “Among uncertain 2019 Conservative voters, just 11% told us that they were actually actively considering voting for Labour…Conversely, 28% said they were actively considering voting Conservative. One in eleven (9%) said the same of the Liberal Democrats.” 

·       “Uncertain 2019 Conservative voters have a far dimmer view of Starmer and Labour than they do Sunak or the Conservatives.”

·       “Lastly, the “don’t know” tribe are much more likely to align with the sorts of issues that the Conservatives want to talk about.”

Patrick English concludes: “Taken altogether, this suggests that while the Conservatives are currently struggling immensely to hold their election-winning 2019 voter coalition together, Labour’s task in winning over those former Conservative voters who are currently undecided looks to be a significant one.”

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