Caution Urged Following Latest Poll

There has been much excitement today about new polling by Savanta pointing to a 7 point drop in Labour’s share of the vote.

Among all those questioned who said they were likely to vote and who expressed a voting intention, 41% said they would vote Labour, down five points from last week.  The Conservatives meanwhile are on 29%, up two points.

Savanta notes that the 12-point lead for Labour is the lowest it has recorded for the party since June last year.

The dip in Labour’s poll lead comes following the party’s decision to drop its commitment to spending £28 billion on its green investment plans.  In addition, with the poll having been conducted between the 9th and 11th February, it just covered part of Labour’s latest antisemitism row which began to emerge on Sunday.

Not surprisingly the poll has got many excited, with an article on the GB News website declaring: “Crisis deepens for Starmer as polling PLUMMETS and now THIRD Labour politician 'spoken to' over antisemitism.”

However, its important to avoid any knee jerk conclusions based on just one poll. As Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta notes:

  • There is a need to “see longer trends, including from multiple pollsters, before drawing any firm conclusions.”
  •  The Savanta figures out today would still give Labour a 92-seat majority in the House of Commons if replicated at the General Election.

Hopkins does warn however: “My main reflection is that if Labour’s decision making is this poor and its support is as brittle as this (one) poll implies, it doesn't feel like they're ready for the scrutiny of an actual GE campaign.”

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