Why The General Election is Likely to Make History

That Labour has a substantial lead over the Conservatives in the polls is not exactly news. Just this week, YouGov’s latest poll gave Labour a 21 point advantage over the Conservatives.

However, despite the impressive polling lead, as we look to an election, possibly in the autumn, it is difficult to understate the historic nature of any result that leads to Labour or the Conservatives securing an outright majority in the House of Commons.

For the Conservatives, a recent analysis in The Times will have proven sober reading. As the first paragraph of the piece summarised: “Rishi Sunak will need to pull off the ­biggest political comeback in more than 70 years if he is to win the next election, analysis suggests.”

The article, which looked at polling data going as far back as 1951, found that “no government has successfully closed such a large gap this close to a general election.” It continued: “It suggests that the best Sunak can hope for on the basis of historical trends would be a swing of about 14 per cent, which would not be enough to keep the prime minister in Downing Street.”

But for Labour too, perhaps the sense of inevitability that it will win the election has masked the sheer extent of the challenge it faces.

A recent assessment by academics for the BBC, Sky News, ITV News and the Press Association found that under the new constituency boundaries for the forthcoming General Election, Labour would need a uniform swing to it, from the Conservatives, of 12.7% to achieve just a small majority.

A briefing from the House of Commons Library notes that since 1951, swings in general elections have usually been less than 5-percentage points, except for 1997 (10.2% swing to Labour), 1979 (5.4% swing to the Conservatives) and 2010 (5.1% swing to the Conservatives). Even Labour’s historic landslide in 1945 saw a swing to the party, from the Conservatives of 12%, less than what Labour needs later this year to get just a small majority, never mind a landslide.

The task looks even more daunting when looking at the exact number of seats Labour needs to win to secure the keys to Downing Street.

According to research by the Fabian Society Labour would get an overall majority of one seat if it picks up an additional 125 seats at the election.

Many have questioned if Keir Starmer can replicate the achievements of New Labour and secure the kind of landslide the party won in 1997 under Tony Blair. However, the context is different. In the 1997 election, Labour won an additional 146 seats, securing an overall majority of 179 in the Commons.

The Blair victory came after the 1992 election in which, although a shock victory, saw the Conservatives secure a majority of just 21 seats. In stark contrast, Keir Starmer faces a Conservative Party which, at the last general election in 2019, secured a majority of 81 seats.

Then there is the other great landslide victory for Labour in 1945 under the leadership of Clement Attlee, which saw the party secure  a majority of 145, having managed to win an extra 239 seats.

If YouGov is correct in its modelling that Labour could be on course for a majority of around 120 seats, an increase of 183 since 2019, then Keir Starmer is heading for a victory, the likes of which would probably eclipse what Tony Blair achieved, and come close to Clement Attlee’s achievement in 1945.

Whatever way one looks at it, barring the prospect of a hung Parliament, we are on track for an historic election.

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