New Poll Points to Bleak Expectations for the Conservatives

The bleak mood among Conservative MPs will be bleaker still as a result of new polling for the civil society campaign, Best for Britain.

Carried out by Survation, the poll of over 15,000 people was undertaken using an MRP analysis not long after the Budget.

It puts Labour on 45%, with the Conservatives trailing way behind on 26.2%, the Liberal Democrats on 10.4% and Reform UK on 8.5%.

The modelling suggests that if replicated at the General Election, the Conservatives would lose 250 MPs, slumping to 98 seats, with Labour on 468. The SNP would be on 41 seats with the Liberal Democrats on 22. As Best for Britain notes this would give Labour an overall majority in the House of Commons of 142 and it would be “the worst ever result for the Conservatives at a General Election.”

It suggests that on this basis, just 13 cabinet ministers would keep their seats, with those reported as eyeing up the leadership of the party, such as the Leader of the House of Commons, Penny Mordaunt; the Home Secretary, James Cleverly; and the Defence Secretary Grant Shapps set to lose theirs.

In a sign of the difficulties faced by the Conservatives from Reform UK, Best for Britain notes that whilst Reform UK’s vote share is on just 8.5%, “in 207 seats their vote share is above 10%, and in 47 seats their vote share is over 15%.” It concludes: “With this level of support, if they stand down their candidates as UKIP did in 2017, and the Brexit Party (Reform UK’s previous name), did in 2019, Reform UK could significantly boost the Conservative seat haul.”

Separately however, in some news that will provide just a little cheer in Downing Street, additional polling for More in Common finds that a majority (62%) of the public do not believe the Conservative Party should change its leader before the election, a figure which increases to 70% among Conservative voters.  

That said, it finds that if there were to be a change of leadership, Penny Mordaunt would do the best job of narrowing the polling gap with Labour, closing the lead by 6 points compared to Rishi Sunak.

Luke Tyrl, UK Director for More in Common, notes that: “Broadly Penny Mordaunt seems to be preferred by those who have switched to Labour or Reform, Sunak does better among Conservative stickers.”

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