Replacing Conservative Leader Unlikely to Help the Party According to Polling

The Conservative gloom continues as polling this week has shown just what a difficult position the party is now in, with none of the potential replacements for Rishi Sunak likely to revive the party’s fortunes.

YouGov’s latest poll puts Labour on 44%, with the Conservatives miles behind on 19% when it comes to Westminster voting intentions. As YouGov notes, for the Conservatives, this represents “the same share the party received at their lowest ebb in the aftermath of Liz Truss’s mini-Budget.” Reform UK are just four points behind the Conservatives on 15%.

Meanwhile, YouGov reports  that whilst the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer continues to be the least unpopular political figure in the UK with a net favourability rating of -18, Rishi Sunak is languishing on a net rating of -50.  More worryingly still for the Conservative Party YouGov goes on to note: “those who voted for the Conservatives in 2019 have a more favourable opinion of Nigel Farage than they do of Rishi Sunak. While Farage is popular among 2019 Tories – 50% have a positive opinion and 42% a negative one – Sunak is unpopular, with 40% having a favourable view of the PM but 54% an unfavourable one.”

Opinium’s latest poll for The Observer puts Labour on 41%, followed by the Conservatives on 25% and Reform UK on 11%.

Whilst it finds that overall, the public think Keir Starmer would make a better Prime Minister than Rishi Sunak, the public also seem more inclined to think that Rishi Sunak should resign as Leader of the Conservative Party. 45% said he should step down, compared to 31% saying he should stay and 24% indicating that they did not know.  

Despite this, the polling also indicates that simply replacing Rishi Sunak is unlikely to help the Conservatives all that much.

The Observer notes: “Opinium found that of the four most likely replacements for Sunak, were there to be a contest – Mordaunt, James Cleverly, the home secretary, Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, and Kemi Badenoch, the business and trade secretary – only Mordaunt would have any positive effect at all on the Tory vote. And even then, the “Mordaunt bounce” would only be marginal and still end in a large defeat.”

It continues: “When asked if voters would prefer a Tory government led by Sunak or a Labour one led by Starmer, Opinium found that Labour under Starmer would have a lead of 18 points. If Mordaunt were to lead the Tories against Starmer, Labour would be 15 points ahead. This would still mean a sizeable majority in the House of Commons. But if Braverman or Badenoch were to lead the Tories, the Labour lead would be even more, increasing to 24 points, and with Cleverly in charge it would go up to 21 points.”

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