Is Keir Starmer About to Have a Lot in Common with Stanley Baldwin?

In the midst of an election campaign, it can be difficult to avoid feeling overwhelmed by the sheer volume of polling data that gets published.

So, cutting through the noise, barring some sort of miracle, Keir Starmer and the Labour Party will form the next government. The only question is how big the party’s majority will be.

On that we have two mega MRP polls out today which help us to put the state of public opinion into some sort of historical context.

More in Common’s poll for The News Agents Podcast puts Labour on 43% of the vote, winning 382 seats (up from 180 compared to 2019) in the House of Commons. Thie would be the most seats the party would have won since the 412 it secured at the 2001 election according to the House of Commons Library.  

The Conservatives meanwhile would win 28% of the vote, giving it 180 seats, down 185 compared to 2019, and the fewest seats it would have won since the 166 it bagged at the 2001 election.

Overall, More in Common point to a Labour majority of 114 seats, the most won by the party in an election since the 166-seat majority won by Labour under Tony Blair in 2001.

YouGov’s first MRP poll for Sky News points to a much bigger Labour victory.

According to the data Labour are on course to win 422 seats, up 220 compared to the 2019 election. The last time any parties came anywhere near this was the 412 seats won in 1931 election by the National Government under the leadership of Conservative Leader, Stanley Baldwin and National Labour Leader, Ramsay MacDonald.

YouGov meanwhile points to the Conservatives winning just 140 seats, down 225 compared to those it won in 2019. As YouGov notes, “that would be their worst performance at a British general election for the party since 1906 – the first election where the Labour Party, then led by another Keir (Hardie), went into double-digit seat wins (27).”

The YouGov MRP poll points to an overall Labour majority of 194 seats, eclipsing the 178 the party won in 1997. With the exception of the National Government victories in 1931 and 1935, a 194-seat majority would be the highest any party would have secured since the 210 won by the Conservatives under Stanley Baldwin exactly 100 years ago in 1924.

But could this all be far worse for the Conservatives? Possibly given neither of these polls were conducted after the news that Nigel Farage not only plans to stand in the election in the Essex seat of Clacton but has also taken over the leadership of Reform UK.

YouGov says of Reform UK: “If the party were to stand aside in all seats and their voters moved exclusively to the Conservatives then this would constitute a lot of gains for the Tories, however, analysis here suggests that just three in ten Reform UK voters would likely vote Conservative if their party was not standing.”

It continues: “If we applied this more conservative estimate uniformly across all seats then we find that Reform UK standing could be costing the Conservatives 16 seats. These are all seats where the Labour vs Conservative race is already on a knife edge such as Chatham and Aylesford, Bridgwater, and West Suffolk. Of course, this is a fairly crude calculation and assumes Reform UK voters would act the same way across the country. Of course, it is nigh on impossible to predict accurately the impact of this a hypothetical scenario.”

However, with Nigel Farage as leader, polling by Ipsos Mori in February suggests Reform UK could see a considerable boost to its electoral support, even if it doesn’t translate into lots of seats.

It found that among those who voted Conservative in 2019, whilst 31% had a favourable view of Reform UK, this increased to 43% if Nigel Farage became leader.

Whatever way you look at it, the Conservative Party has a lot to be miserable about right now.

 

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