Message to Labour – 2025 Will Need to be a Year of Delivery

As the political world looks forward to 2025 new polling will be making for sobering reading for Labour, albeit it over four years away from the next election.

First of all, More in Common has published its first mega MRP poll since the General Election.

When it comes to vote share, the poll finds that if there were an election today, the parties would secure the following, with changes compared to the results of the General Election in brackets:

  • Labour: 25% (down from 33.7%)
  • Conservatives: 26% (up from 23.7%)
  • Reform UK: 21% (up from 14.29%)
  • Liberal Democrats: 14% (up from 12.22%)
  • Green Party: 8% (up from 6.4%)

The above would point to the parties securing the following number of seats in the House of Commons:

  • Labour: 228 (-183)
  • Conservatives: 222 (+101)
  • Reform UK: 72 (+ 67)
  • Liberal Democrats: 58 (-14)
  • SNP: 37 (+28)
  • Independent: 8 (+3)
  • Plaid Cymru: 4 (-)
  • Green: 2 (-2)

Digging deeper, More in Common suggest that such findings would see 271 seats won with just a third of the votes cast, whilst 221 seats would see the winner with a lead of less than 5 percentage points.

Luke Tryl, Executive Director of More in Common UK, said: “With potentially four and a half years to go, this model is not a prediction of what would happen at the next General Election. Instead, however, it confirms the fragmentation of British politics that we saw in July’s election has only accelerated in Labour’s six months in office. The First Past the Post system is struggling to deal with that degree of fragmentation, which is why our model shows so many seats on a three-way knife edge, and many being won on exceptionally small shares of the vote.

“There is no doubt that many voters have found the start of the Starmer Government disappointing and Labour’s estimated vote share would drop significantly were there to be an election tomorrow. Far from the usual electoral honeymoon, our model estimates that Labour would lose nearly 200 of the seats they won in July’s election. While the new Government is still in its infancy it is clear that decisions such as means testing the winter fuel allowance and other budget measures have landed badly. The pressure from the public is now on the Government to deliver.”

Meanwhile, JL Partners has also published polling using a new method called POLARIS (Political Analysis through Regional and Local Insights System). In summary, it notes that this new method leverages “the wealth of data provided by council by-election results to predict election outcomes mid-cycle.” The model, if replicated at a General Election, would see the parties secure the following number of seats:

  • Labour: 256
  • Conservatives: 208
  • Reform UK: 71
  • Liberal Democrat: 66
  • Independents: 15
  • SNP: 6
  • Greens: 5
  • Plaid Cymru: 4

Noting that the electoral map of the country would “drastically change”, JL Partners says of the poll: “Coastal seats across the North East would be lost by Labour to Reform UK, including Easington and Hartlepool. Further losses would be metered out by Reform in the Thames Estuary and large parts of the North West. Meanwhile, the Conservatives would regain ground in their Southern Heartlands and parts of Scotland. This dynamic would make governing almost impossible for any of the parties, sending the country into an unsure future.”

Meanwhile, polling by Survation for The I newspaper suggests that 62% of the public do not think the Government can get a handle on living costs.

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