Poll to Poll

Keir Starmer and the Labour Party would be forgiven for feeling slightly lonely.  Not only do they face four years of Donald Trump in the White House, as they look to Germany, Canada and Australia they see the prospect of parties of the centre-left being swept from office. First of all, there’s Germany, which goes to the polls on 23 rd February. YouGov’s first mega MRP poll ahead of the election puts the centre-right CDU/CSU on course to be the single largest party in the Germany Parliament, the Bundestag. Its central estimate, based on the poll is that the CDU/CSU are on course to take 222 out of 630 seats in the Parliament, based on 30% of the vote, up from 24% in the last elections in 2021.   As it notes: “This would likely mean that CDU leader Friedrich Merz will be the next chancellor of Germany.” YouGov goes on to note: “The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) are also expected to make gains, with the 146 seats and 20% of the vote projected by the YouGov mo...

 Opinium has published its latest poll for The Observer. When it comes to headline voting intentions, whilst 29% of those questioned said they would vote Labour, Reform come second with 24% of those polled saying they would vote for Nigel Farage’s party.  23% opted for the Conservatives, with 10% going for the Liberal Democrats. When it comes to approval ratings for key political leaders, Keir Starmer has a net rating of -33, compared to the Conservative Leader, Kemi Badenoch on -13 and Nigel Farage on -9. The Liberal Democrat Leader, Ed Davey, has a net satisfaction rating of +2. Meanwhile the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has a net approval rating of -30 with 49% of those polled being dissatisfied with the way she is doing her job, and just 19% approving. Asked who they felt would make the best Prime Minister, 26% said Keir Starmer compared to 16% opting for Kemi Badenoch. 42% said neither of them. Questioned about the degree to which they approved or not of the way va...