Why UK Labour Might be Feeling Lonely

Keir Starmer and the Labour Party would be forgiven for feeling slightly lonely. 

Not only do they face four years of Donald Trump in the White House, as they look to Germany, Canada and Australia they see the prospect of parties of the centre-left being swept from office.

First of all, there’s Germany, which goes to the polls on 23rd February. YouGov’s first mega MRP poll ahead of the election puts the centre-right CDU/CSU on course to be the single largest party in the Germany Parliament, the Bundestag.

Its central estimate, based on the poll is that the CDU/CSU are on course to take 222 out of 630 seats in the Parliament, based on 30% of the vote, up from 24% in the last elections in 2021.  As it notes: “This would likely mean that CDU leader Friedrich Merz will be the next chancellor of Germany.”

YouGov goes on to note: “The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) are also expected to make gains, with the 146 seats and 20% of the vote projected by the YouGov model the best result for a party to the right of the Christian Democrats in post-war Germany.

“Current chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), however, will suffer clear losses, with their projected 16% vote share down ten percentage points on the last election and their worst result in the post-war period. Their coalition partners the Greens are likely to fare less badly, with the model’s central estimate of 14% of the vote just a single point less than their result three-and-a-half years ago.

“The MRP gives a central projection of 6% of the vote and 45 seats for the new left-wing but socially conservative BSW (Sahra Wagenkneckt Alliance), while the liberal Free Democrats, who resigned from the government last November, and socialist The Left party are projected to win no seats in the next Bundestag on this result.”

Over the Atlantic in Canada elections for the national Parliament will need to take place by no later than 20th October.  Following the decision by the current Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, to step down, this is likely to happen relatively soon after the ruling Liberal Party has decided who will replace him as leader.

According to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s poll tracker the Canadian Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is leading the way when it comes to an average of the polls on 44.5% with the Liberals second on  21.5%. The New Democrats meanwhile are on 18.1%.

CBC suggest that this points to a 99% probability of the Conservatives winning a majority in the Canadian House of Commons.

Over in Australia, an election must be held by, or before, 17th May. According a recent YouGov poll for the Australian Associated Press, the conservative Liberal/National Coalition have two-party preferred lead over the governing Labor Party led by Anthony Albanese of 51% to 49%. 

Sky News Australia goes on to say of the poll: “Labor's two-party preferred share has dwindled over the past 12 months - in January 2024 the party had a 52 to 48 per cent lead over the Coalition.

“Mr Albanese's party did manage to record a rise in its primary vote in the latest survey, from November's 30 per cent to 32 per cent, but it was still well behind the opposition, which was up from 38 to 39 per cent.

“He was still the preferred prime minister over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, 44 to 40 per cent, but support for Mr Dutton has increased from 35 per cent one year ago.”

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Buyers Regret Over Brexit?

This week marked five years since the UK voted to leave the European Union, a decision which has shaken British politics in a way that few would have foreseen. To mark the occasion, Savanta ComRes this week published polling suggesting that if the referendum were held today, remain would just win, with 51% of respondents saying they would vote to stay in the EU compared to 49% who would vote to leave. The poll shows that there would be little switching from either side, with 6% of those who voted remain in 2016 saying they would not vote to leave, and 7% of those who originally voted to leave saying they would now vote remain. Savanta ComRes go on to say: “That means the Remain edge in this poll comes from those who did not vote in 2016, with this group being more than twice as likely to vote for Remain (71%) than Leave (29%).” The poll found however that if the public were asked instead to choose between joining the EU or not, 51% would vote not to become a member, whilst 49% w...
Read more

Can Labour Look Forward to a Decade in Power?

Speaking at the start of the year the new Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, spoke of a "decade of national renewal" being the "central, defining purpose" of a future Labour government. Fast forward to today, and for those now in Government the question will be whether the election results can give Labour any confidence at the prospect of a decade in power. Some might conclude that it is absurd to be asking this question, given Labour’s 172 seat majority in the Commons. That is just 7 short of the majority New Labour secured in 1997 which ushered in 13 years of Labour rule. However, dig deeper, and the reality is that Labour’s victory is thin. According to the election results Labour won on Thursday having secured around 9.7 million votes, equivalent to 33.7% of the votes cast. To set that into context, according to House of Commons Library data , that compares to the 13.5 million votes (43.2% vote share) Labour got in 1997. What is more, the total number of ...
Read more

Rishi’s Ratings Sink

Rishi Sunak has registered his weakest favourability ratings since becoming Prime Minister according to new polling by Ipsos Mori. It reports that whilst the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer, has a net favourability score of -7, Rishi Sunak’s has sunk to -19. With Boris Johnson continuing to breathe down Rishi Sunak’s neck, Ipsos goes on to note: “More than half of 2019 Conservative voters are favourable to Johnson (55%) while 49% say the same for Sunak. Overall, among 2019 Conservative voters, Johnson scores +29 while Sunak scores +23.   However, Johnson’s lead owes more to falling ratings for Mr Sunak rather than improving ratings for the former PM.” Looking at the parties as a whole, Labour has a net favourability rating of +2 with the Conservatives on -29. When it coms to Brexit, 55% of respondents told Ipsos that leaving the EU had had a negative impact on the country, with just 21% saying it had been positive. It continues: “If we subtract the proportion saying Brexit has...
Read more