Poll to Poll

Just a matter of days after the starting gun was fired for a general election in Canada on 28 th April, Australia’s Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, confirmed this week that Australians will also go to the polls on 3 rd May. Against this backdrop, new polling indicates that the Australian Labor Party may now be within touching distance of securing a second term in government, despite trailing in the polls just last month. YouGov’s second MRP model for the election suggests that Labor is now on course to secure between 69 and 80 seats in the 150 seat House of Representatives. The Liberal/National coalition is forecast to take 55-68 seats, the Greens 1-3, and Independents 7-12. The central projection, which YouGov describes as “the most likely result”, would put Labor on 75 seats, just one short of an outright majority. The Coalition would be on 60, Independents on 11, Greens on 2, Katter’s Australia Party on 1 and the Centre Alliance on 1. Paul Smith, Director of Public Data...

 The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will this week deliver her spring forecast against a backdrop of difficult public finances to say the least, anemic growth at best and concerns about the prospect of more spending cuts by government departments. Against this background, polling by Opinium demonstrates the challenge the Chancellor now faces. In respect of approval ratings, 53% of those questioned disapprove of the job Reeves is doing, with just 16% approving, giving her a net approval rating of -37 which, Opinium notes, makes her “by some margin the least popular cabinet minister tested.” Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 57% said they felt the economy will get worse, with 41% believing their own personal finances will get worse. When it comes to key metrics, Labour leads the Conservatives by 9% when it comes to who the public thinks is best positioned to improve public services, whilst Labour has a 4% lead when it comes to which party is likely to spend government money m...

At the start of January, the then Leader of the Canadian Liberal Party and Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, announced his decision to stand down.  He did so amidst polls putting his party on an almost certain course to be defeated at the general election needing to be held this year. According to the CBC News poll of poll on the day that Trudeau confirmed his decision to step down on 6 th January,   the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, led the Liberals by a margin of 24 percentage points. What we have witnessed over the past couple of weeks is nothing short of a political miracle. Against a backdrop of Donald Trump imposing tariffs on goods from Canada and his threat to turn the country into the 51 st state of the USA, the new Liberal Leader and now Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has transformed his party’s fortunes. He has done so by positioning himself and his party as the force best positioned stand up for Canada and its interests against an increasingly bellige...