It’s All to Play for Ahead of Elections in Australia and Canada

Just a matter of days after the starting gun was fired for a general election in Canada on 28th April, Australia’s Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, confirmed this week that Australians will also go to the polls on 3rd May.

Against this backdrop, new polling indicates that the Australian Labor Party may now be within touching distance of securing a second term in government, despite trailing in the polls just last month.

YouGov’s second MRP model for the election suggests that Labor is now on course to secure between 69 and 80 seats in the 150 seat House of Representatives. The Liberal/National coalition is forecast to take 55-68 seats, the Greens 1-3, and Independents 7-12.

The central projection, which YouGov describes as “the most likely result”, would put Labor on 75 seats, just one short of an outright majority. The Coalition would be on 60, Independents on 11, Greens on 2, Katter’s Australia Party on 1 and the Centre Alliance on 1.

Paul Smith, Director of Public Data at YouGov Australia has outlined the degree of change this represents. He has noted: “Labor is now only one seat short of a majority in a notable change from our previous MRP in February. This is a decisive change in the Australian political landscape – from a likely Coalition government in February to a likely Labor government now. The turnaround is because of a 1.3% swing to Labor which sees the Coalition fall behind in 10 key marginal seats that they were projected to win our previous projection. As the election nears, the data points to a very dynamic campaign.”

The first Newspoll of the election in Australia also points to a narrow lead for the Australian Labor Party.  

On the two-party preferred measure, Labor are on 51%, with the Liberal/National Coalition on 49%. This has come about as a result of the Coalition’s primary vote falling by two-points to 37%, with Labour’s primary vote on 33%.

Whilst Newspoll has found that the net approval rating for the Labor Leader and Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese is at -9, the Opposition Liberal Leader, Peter Dutton, is doing worse on -18.

Meanwhile, in Canada, CBC’s poll of polls continues to demonstrate the remarkable transformation in the fortunes of the Liberal Party led by Mark Carney.

According to the data, the Liberals are polling on 41.2% of the vote, clearly ahead of the Conservatives on 37.8%.

CBC’s analysis points to the Liberals having a 73% chance of winning a majority in the federal Parliament, with a 15% chance of them being the single biggest party in a hung Parliament. In contrast, the Conservatives have a 2% chance of winning an outright majority, with a 10% chance of them being the largest party in a hung Parliament.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Buyers Regret Over Brexit?

This week marked five years since the UK voted to leave the European Union, a decision which has shaken British politics in a way that few would have foreseen. To mark the occasion, Savanta ComRes this week published polling suggesting that if the referendum were held today, remain would just win, with 51% of respondents saying they would vote to stay in the EU compared to 49% who would vote to leave. The poll shows that there would be little switching from either side, with 6% of those who voted remain in 2016 saying they would not vote to leave, and 7% of those who originally voted to leave saying they would now vote remain. Savanta ComRes go on to say: “That means the Remain edge in this poll comes from those who did not vote in 2016, with this group being more than twice as likely to vote for Remain (71%) than Leave (29%).” The poll found however that if the public were asked instead to choose between joining the EU or not, 51% would vote not to become a member, whilst 49% w...
Read more

Can Labour Look Forward to a Decade in Power?

Speaking at the start of the year the new Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, spoke of a "decade of national renewal" being the "central, defining purpose" of a future Labour government. Fast forward to today, and for those now in Government the question will be whether the election results can give Labour any confidence at the prospect of a decade in power. Some might conclude that it is absurd to be asking this question, given Labour’s 172 seat majority in the Commons. That is just 7 short of the majority New Labour secured in 1997 which ushered in 13 years of Labour rule. However, dig deeper, and the reality is that Labour’s victory is thin. According to the election results Labour won on Thursday having secured around 9.7 million votes, equivalent to 33.7% of the votes cast. To set that into context, according to House of Commons Library data , that compares to the 13.5 million votes (43.2% vote share) Labour got in 1997. What is more, the total number of ...
Read more

Rishi’s Ratings Sink

Rishi Sunak has registered his weakest favourability ratings since becoming Prime Minister according to new polling by Ipsos Mori. It reports that whilst the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer, has a net favourability score of -7, Rishi Sunak’s has sunk to -19. With Boris Johnson continuing to breathe down Rishi Sunak’s neck, Ipsos goes on to note: “More than half of 2019 Conservative voters are favourable to Johnson (55%) while 49% say the same for Sunak. Overall, among 2019 Conservative voters, Johnson scores +29 while Sunak scores +23.   However, Johnson’s lead owes more to falling ratings for Mr Sunak rather than improving ratings for the former PM.” Looking at the parties as a whole, Labour has a net favourability rating of +2 with the Conservatives on -29. When it coms to Brexit, 55% of respondents told Ipsos that leaving the EU had had a negative impact on the country, with just 21% saying it had been positive. It continues: “If we subtract the proportion saying Brexit has...
Read more