Is a Political Miracle Brewing in Canada?

At the start of January, the then Leader of the Canadian Liberal Party and Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, announced his decision to stand down. 

He did so amidst polls putting his party on an almost certain course to be defeated at the general election needing to be held this year. According to the CBC News poll of poll on the day that Trudeau confirmed his decision to step down on 6th January,  the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, led the Liberals by a margin of 24 percentage points.

What we have witnessed over the past couple of weeks is nothing short of a political miracle. Against a backdrop of Donald Trump imposing tariffs on goods from Canada and his threat to turn the country into the 51st state of the USA, the new Liberal Leader and now Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has transformed his party’s fortunes. He has done so by positioning himself and his party as the force best positioned stand up for Canada and its interests against an increasingly belligerent administration in Washington.

As a result, with a general election now called for 28th April, the Liberal Party are now seen as the favourites to win.

According to CBC’s poll of polls, the Liberals are polling on 37.5% of the vote, just ahead of the Conservatives on 37.1%.

CBC’s analysis points to the Liberals having a 48% change of winning a majority in the federal Parliament, with a 26% chance of them being the single biggest party in a hung Parliament. In contrast, the Conservatives have a 6% chance of winning an outright majority, with a 20% chance of it being the largest party in a hung Parliament.

It is perhaps little wonder that Lori Turnbull, the director of Dalhousie University’s school of public administration has been quoted in The Guardian as saying: “Carney has been the game changer and has totally reversed the fortunes of the Liberal party.”

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