Canada and Australia – Election Updates

With advance polling having started in Canada’s general election, formally taking place in a week’s time, and following a week in which leaders of the main political parties held their only debates, the Liberal Party led by Mark Carney continues to do well in the polls.

According to CBC’s poll of polls, the Liberals are now on 43.3% of the vote with the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, on 38.4%.

The central forecast is for the Liberals to have an outright majority of 195 seats in the Canadian House of Commons with the Conservatives on 122.

The Liberals now have an 84% chance of returning to power with an outright majority, and a 15% probability of being the single largest party in a hung parliament. The Conservatives, according to the polls, have just 1% chance of being the biggest single party.

In Australia meanwhile, the incumbent Labor Party will be increasingly confident of winning the general election there in just a couple of weeks’ time.

According to the latest Newspoll, when it comes to the primary vote, the ruling Labor Party is on 34%, its highest level since January 2024. The opposition Liberal/National coalition meanwhile is on 35%.

In respect of the two-party preferred vote, Labor lead the Coalition by 52% to 48%.

Labor Leader and current Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese has widened his lead over the Coalition Leader, Peter Dutton on the preferred prime minister measure, gaining three points since Newspoll’s last data to 52%. Mr Dutton has dropped two points to 36%.

This reflects similar good news for Labor in YouGov Australia’s latest poll which, when it comes to the two-party preferred vote, puts Labor on 53% compared to the Coalition on 47%. YouGov notes that his represents Labor’s strongest two party preferred vote in 18 months and exceeds its 2022 federal election performance of 52.1%.

Paul Smith, YouGov Australia’s Director of Public Data, has said: “In an election held today, the Coalition would receive the lowest vote they have received since the Liberal Party was formed in 1944, with Labor having a clear lead in all states except Queensland and leading in Outer Metropolitan electorates that will decide the election.”

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