Carney and Albanese in Poll Positions in Canadian and Australian Elections

With Canadian’s due to vote in their general election in just two weeks’ time, the polling continues to point to the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, being on course to win. 

According to CBC’s poll of polls the Liberals now stand on 44.3% of the vote, compared with the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, on 37.5%.

Based on the data, the analysis suggests that the central forecast in terms of number of seats in the Canadian House of Commons is now 198 for the Liberals, clearly past the 172 seats needed for an outright majority.  This would be up from the 160 the party won under Justin Trudeau at the last election in 2021. The central forecast for the Conservatives is for 121 seats, just two more than the party won in 2021.

The CBC data suggests that there is now an 87% chance of the Liberals winning a majority, a 12% chance of them being the biggest party in a hung parliament and just 1% chance of the Conservatives being the single largest party in the House of Commons.

Meanwhile, in Australia, which holds its general election just days after the Canadians, the incumbent Labor Party, under the leadership of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, will be cheered by polling pointing to them beating the Liberal/National Coalition led by Peter Dutton.

According to YouGov Australia, when it comes to the two-party preferred vote, Labor is now on 52.%, up 1.5% from last week. The Coalition is on 47.5%. YouGov notes that it represents the “highest two-party preferred vote for Labor in 18 months, slightly surpassing the Labor party's winning result in the 2022 Federal Election.”

When it comes to the primary vote, Labor is on 32%, up 2% from last week, with the Coalition on 33.5%, down 1.5%. The One Nation party is on 8.5%, up 1.5%, with the Greens and others remaining, in YouGov’s analysis, “steady”.

Meanwhile, 48% of those polled prefer Anthony Albanese as Prime Minister, compared to 37% saying the same about Peter Dutton.

Paul Smith, YouGov Australia’s Director of Public Data, has said of the polling: “The Coalition, which only in February was in a strong position to win government, is now struggling to hold onto the seats it won in 2022. This shift is largely due to the unpopularity of policies such as the ban work-from-home arrangements and the plan to sack 41,000 public sector workers.”

He continued: "Dutton's backdown on his controversial work-from-home policies and public sector sackings has directly impacted his standing with voters, as evidenced by his falling a further 4% behind as preferred Prime Minister. Meanwhile, Albanese continues to solidify his lead as preferred Prime Minister, with his satisfaction ratings showing a steady improvement."

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