The Conservative’s Dire Poll Numbers

With the Conservative conference well underway in Manchester, those attending would do well to avoid looking at the latest polls if they want to have a half decent gathering. 

According to Opinium’s latest data, when it comes to headline voting intentions, just 16% of those questioned said they planned to vote Conservative at the next General Election. That’s behind Reform UK on 34% and Labour on 21%.

The data suggests that 37% of those who voted Conservative in 2024 now plan to vote Reform UK.

Asked who they felt would make the best Prime Minister just 14% said the Conservative Leader, Kemi Badenoch, behind Sir Keir Starmer on 23%. 51% said neither of them.

In a sign of why the parties are adopting the tactics they are, immigration, according to the poll, is the voters single biggest issue, cited by 56% of those questioned. That raises to 72% among those who voted Conservative last year and 86% who voted Reform UK in the General Election.

Asked to rate the Conservatives on a whole series  of characteristics, just 17% of respondents said the party was in touch with ordinary people; 17% said it represented what most people think; 24% said it had the nation’s best interests at heart; 22% said it had a clear sense of purpose; 26% said it knew what it stood for; 21% said it could be trusted to make big decisions; 21% said it was competent; 20% said it was united and 23% said it was tolerant. Overall, just 18% of those questioned said they felt the party was ready for government. All that said, the Labour Party did not poll all that better on these characteristics.

Asked about whether their opinion of Kemi Badenoch had become or less positive since she became Conservative Leader, just 23% said more positive, with 20% saying more negative. Overall, 20% said they had a more positive attitude towards the Conservatives since the General Election, compared to 26% saying they had a more negative view of the party. Interestingly just over a quarter (27%) of those who voted Conservative at the General Election said they now had a more negative attitude towards the party.

Just 23% told Opinium that Kemi Badenoch’s time as Conservative Leader so far has been a success, compared to 48% saying it hasn’t.

Summing up some of the rest of Opinium’s data, James Crouch, its head of policy and public affairs, said: “While the mood among Conference goers may have been that Labour and Starmer had at not a bad week, public sentiment remains deeply negative. The public don’t think Labour have had a good week, they see a party struggling to rebuild trust in politics, inspire hope, or demonstrate competent governance. Despite Labour’s criticism this week of Farage and Reform talking down Britain and being negative, the public are actually more likely to view Starmer as pessimistic about the country’s future than Farage, suggesting Labour must first address how they are perceived before challenging others. The Conservatives head into their conference weekend with their leader on low approval ratings, and a party still searching for a message that resonates.”

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