Grim Polling for Labour Ahead of the Budget

 Ahead of what could constitute a make or break Budget for the Labour Government, in among analysing the economic numbers, politicians, political hacks and anoraks will be pouring over the public polling to understand the public climate going into, and then out of, the Budget.

For those in Labour circles, the latest figures make, frankly, for grim reading.

Firstly, Opinium’s latest poll for The Observer finds that when it comes to headline voting intentions, Reform remains well ahead of the other parties on 32%, followed by Labour on 19%, the Conservatives on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 13% and the Greens on 12%.

Opinium continues: “Public dissatisfaction with political leadership remains entrenched: Keir Starmer stays at -45, while Kemi Badenoch sits at -16 (+1). Nigel Farage’s ratings remain steadier, at -10. Rachel Reeves’ approval has ticked up but remains very low at -42.

“This is the third poll in a row where Keir Starmer has been on -45, and marks over a 100 day period where the prime minister has been polling in the net minus forties.”

For perspective, Opinium notes that this is the third poll in a row where the Prime Minister is less popular than either Boris Johnson or Rishi Sunak ever were.

When it comes to the Budget, 52% of respondents said they felt it would be unfair, with just 15% expecting it to be fair with 71% expecting taxes to rise.

More broadly, on -42 and -44 respectively, Keir Starmer and the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves are, Opinium notes “still heavily distrusted on economic matters, with neither making gains as the Budget approaches.”

YouGov meanwhile points  to the Prime Minister’s net favourability rating standing at -54 which the polling agent notes is his lowest recorded with them to date. It continues by noting that this is “near-identical to the -53 YouGov recorded for Boris Johnson on the day of his resignation as prime minister and the -55 which was Jeremy Corbyn’s nadir as Labour leader in June 2019.”

That said, the Prime Minister can at least be comforted in the knowledge that he is not currently the least popular prime minister ever/ YouGov notes: “Liz Truss’s final rating with YouGov was -70, while Rishi Sunak recorded -57 during the 2024 election campaign.”

In respect of the Chancellor, YouGov explains: “This decline in the Government’s popularity is not limited to Starmer. Ahead of next week’s budget, the proportion of Britons with a favourable view of Rachel Reeves has sunk to 12%, the lowest since she became chancellor. This is against 69% now seeing her unfavourably, up six points since last month and comfortably the highest ever recorded for Reeves by YouGov.

“This leaves Reeves with a net favourability rating of -57, which is not just her lowest so far, but is roughly equal to Kwasi Kwarteng’s worst rating as chancellor (-56) in the aftermath of his and Liz Truss’s controversial mini-budget three years ago.”

To make matters worse, YouGov observes that “even majorities of those who voted for Labour last year now have unfavourable opinions of Keir Starmer (52%) and Rachel Reeves (57%).”

Ipsos Mori’s latest polling meanwhile gives Keir Starmer a net satisfaction rating of -66 which “continues to be the lowest satisfaction rating recorded by Ipsos for any Prime Minister going back to 1977, worse than previous lows recorded by Rishi Sunak just months before the general election (-59, April 2024), and John Major (-59, August 1994).”

At -66, the Chancellor’s net satisfaction rating is also, according to Ipsos, the lowest recorded by it of any Chancellor going back to 1977, “including Kwasi Kwarteng in October 2022, just after the mini-budget (net -53).”

Overall, the Government has a net satisfaction rating of -71.

Ipsos Mori also reports that 80% of Britons believe that Britain is getting worse as a place to live, 33% say they are finding it difficult to manage on their present income, whilst 49% say they are worried about their household’s financial situation.

66% of those polled do not believe the Government's policies will improve the state of Britain's economy in the long term. 65% do not believe that the Government’s policies will improve the state of public services.

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