Poll to Poll

Exactly 30 years ago today, on 28 th November 1990, John Major became Prime Minister. In doing so he brought to an end the premiership of Margaret Thatcher, one of the most consequential political figures in modern British political history.   But what do the polling figures tell us about her time in office? Polling by Ipsos Mori in November 1990 found that as she left office, 52% of people felt that her time as Prime Minister had been good for the country, with 40% saying it had been bad. Asked about her personally Ipsos found that at the same time 52% disliked Thatcher and her policies, 8% disliked her but liked her policies, 19% liked Thatcher but not her policies and 20% liked both Thatcher and her policies. Ipsos goes on also to note : “On average during Mrs Thatcher’s premiership, 40% of the public were satisfied with the way she was doing her job while 54% were dissatisfied. But at the peak of her popularity (in June 1982, after the recapture of the Falklands), 59% ...

This was supposed to be the week of the dreaded Government relaunch. Following last week’s drama in Downing Street which saw the Prime Minister’s close aides, Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain leave their jobs, Boris Johnson had been determined to show that this meant a fresh approach from him personally and the Government more widely. However, as all former Prime Minister’s would attest, relaunching a party whilst in government is no easy feat, and so it proved for Mr Johnson. Putting aside the issue of being required to self-isolate after coming into contact with a backbench MP who tested positive for COVID, the Prime Minister’s week got off to a bad start. Scottish devolution, the PM argued during a Zoom meeting with Conservative MPs from the north of England, had been a “disaster” .   Whilst Downing Street sought to argue afterwards that he was referring to the SNP’s approach to devolution, the damage had already been done with a furious reaction from many across Scotland. T...

  As we look back at the week just gone, other than a momentous election result in the United States, history in the UK might also look back on it as the week in which Boris Johnson’s fortunes turned for the worse.   Why do I say that? It all hinges on a combination of events and polling as outlined below. Brexit and the US Elections It is no secret that post Brexit, Boris Johnson’s Government was most hopeful of being able to secure a trade deal quickly with a United States under the leadership of Donald Trump.   In Trump’s own words , a deal under him as President would be “fantastic and big”. Under Joe Biden however, prospects for a quick or comprehensive post-Brexit trade deal are severely diminished for four key reasons: 1.     A sense within the Democrat establishment that Boris Johnson is essentially Trump light. After the UK General Election last year Biden himself dubbed the Prime Minister “a physical and emotional clone of the president...

By Wednesday morning it is possible, and I use that word with caution, that we will know who has won the US Presidential election. With a plethora of polls having been published, where do we stand in the crucial swing states that will determine the election going into the final couple of days of campaign? A poll for CNN by SSRS suggests that across four key battlegrounds which Donald Trump won in 2016, “Joe Biden holds an advantage in the upper Midwest states of Wisconsin and Michigan…but the race between Biden and President Donald Trump is tighter in the battlegrounds of Arizona and North Carolina.”   The poll shows as follows: Arizona – Biden: 50%, Trump 46% Wisconsin – Biden: 52%, Trump: 44% North Carolina – Biden: 51%, Trump: 45% Michigan – Biden: 53%, Trump: 41% The latest New York Times/Siena College poll meanwhile will cheer the Democrats, showing as it does the following: Arizona – Biden: 49%, Trump: 43% Florida – Biden: 47%, Trump 44% Pennsylvania – Bid...

By any standards, the decision by the Labour leadership this week to suspend from the party its former leader, Jeremy Corbyn, over his response to the Equalities and Human Rights Commission report into the party’s response to anti-Semitism during his time as leader was a dramatic step. According to some reports it led some of Corbyn’s more supportive MPs to consider leaving Labour to form a new party entirely. Len Mccluskey, leader of the Unite trade union meanwhile warned that the move risked the party facing defeat at the next general election. But what evidence is there to support such a statement? The answer is not very much. Polling conducted by YouGov just after the news of Jeremy Corbyn’s suspension will embolden the party’s current leadership. Asked to compare Keir Starmer to Jeremy Corbyn, 52% of respondents said that Starmer has been a better leader than Corbyn, with just 8% saying that Corbyn was a better leader. Among those who voted Labour at the 2019 election, 55...

Labour has edged ahead of the Conservatives in respect of voting intentions according to new polling published by Opinium. The research finds 40% saying they would vote Labour, the same level as when Opinium published a similar poll two weeks ago. The Conservatives meanwhile are down 2 percentage points to 38%. The Liberal Democrats remain unchanged at 6%. When it comes to who would make the best Prime Minister, Kier Starmer has a 1 point lead over Boris Johnson, with 31% opting for Starmer (down 2 points from a fortnight ago) and 30% saying Boris Johnson. Following a week which saw the Mayor of Greater Manchester (GM), Andy Burnham, propelled into the national spotlight over the Government’s decision to place GM into Tier 3 COVID-19 restrictions, among those living in the North West, Burnham enjoys a net approval rating of +23%. Nationally, Boris Johnson has a net approval rating of -14% compared to Kier Starmer on +14%. Meanwhile, following in the footsteps of the Trump ad...

In a little over a weeks’ time we should (and I stress should) know who has won the US presidential election. But after the final debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump last Thursday and with the candidates that their supporters bouncing from one swing state to another, the question is what the state of the race is? A new ABC News/Ipsos poll out today helpfully sheds some light on the situation. Summarising the findings, its analysis notes that “views of the two candidates are largely unchanged since the Conventions.” It continues: “President Trump does appear to be rallying some of the groups who traditionally support him, but favourability towards him remains decidedly negative. Joe Biden, meanwhile, continues to break nearly even with as many viewing him favourably as unfavourable. This comes as the large majority of Americans continue to be concerned about potential coronavirus infection.” According to the poll , 35% of respondents said they had a favourable view of Trum...