Poll to Poll

Opinium’s latest poll for The Observer will cause some nervousness within the Conservative Party following a week in which the Prime Minister delivered a shambolic speech to the CBI conference. When it comes to headline voting intentions, Labour retains a narrow two-point lead on 38%, with the Conservatives on 36%. In respect of the verdict on the main two party leaders, Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer has a net approval rating of +1%, with Boris Johnson on -17%. In those seats the Conservatives gained at the 2019 General Election however Boris Johnson has a net approval rating of -20%, whilst Keir Starmer is on -2. The Conservatives can hold on to a crumb of comfort by the fact that more respondents (29%) preferred Boris Johnson as Prime Minister to Keir Starmer (27%). That crumb however goes completely as, when asked to force to choose what kind of Government they would prefer, 42% preferred a Labour Government led by Keir Starmer compared to 36% preferring a Conservative Go...

With the SNP meeting, albeit virtually, for its annual conference, right on queue the pollsters have published data on the state of public opinion in Scotland. At YouGov , when it comes to headline voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament, the SNP are on 48% on the constituency vote, down 4 points from its last poll at the start of May, whilst the Conservatives are up 1 point on 21%. Labour are unchanged on 19% with the Liberal Democrats up 1 point on 7% and the Greens unchanged on 2%. When it comes to the regional list vote, the SNP are unchanged on 38% compared to the start of May, with the Conservative on 19% (down 1 point) and Labour up 3 points on 19%. The Greens are on 11% (-2) and the Liberal Democrats are up 2 points on 7%. When it comes to Scottish independence, the picture remains unchanged from May, with 52% opposing it and 47% supporting it when those who did not know were excluded. Over at Survation meanwhile, its polling for the Scotland in the Union organis...

Labour now has a two point lead over the Conservatives according to the latest poll from  Redfield & Wilton Strategies. It puts Labour on 38%, up 2 points since its last poll on Monday, with the Conservatives down 1 point on 36%. Savanta ComRes also published polling this week which, although showing a Conservative lead, showed things tightening between it and Labour. It put the Conservatives on 38%, down 2 points since the end of October with Labour unchanged on 35%. Meanwhile, as Boris Johnson told a news conference at the COP 26 climate talks in Glasgow that the UK is “not remotely a corrupt country", YouGov’s daily poll suggests the public does not necessarily agree. It found that in total 80% felt there was either a lot or a fair bit of corruption in British politics. Just 1% thought there was no corruption at all in British politics.

IPSOS Mori has published its latest Political Monitor with some good news for the Labour Party. On headline voting, it gives Labour a one point lead as it polls 36% of the vote with the Conservatives on 35%. According to Mike Smithson from Political Betting, number crunching by Electoral Calculus suggests that if such results were replicated universally at a general election, the Conservatives would lose 86 seats, with the Labour Party having just one seat less than the Conservatives. The data from Ipsos suggests that Boris Johnson now has a net satisfaction rating of -27 with the Government as a whole on -33. Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer has a net rating of -21. Asked about who has what it takes to be Prime Minister, whilst 34% agree that Boris Johnson has, 55% disagree, giving him a net rating of -21. In contrast, although fewer (25%) said Keir Starmer has what it takes to be Prime Minister, 41% say he does not, giving him a better net rating of -16. In contrast, whilst 29...

After a week in which Boris Johnson’s Government has been accused of being inherently sleazy, how much cut through is it having on the public? On Thursday, YouGov published polling for The Times suggesting that it might be causing damage to the Conservatives. Having questioned people on Wednesday 3 rd and Thursday 4 th November (which included time after the Commons vote to change the system for dealing with standards issues which has caused such controversy) it put the Conservatives on 36% when it comes to headline voting intentions, just 1 percentage point ahead of Labour. This represented a fall of 3 points in the Conservatives’ share of the vote compared to the week before. Labour meanwhile increased its share by 2 points. Yesterday JL Partners published the results of a survey carried out on the 4 th November for the Daily Mail which found that 46% felt the Conservative party was sleazy, compared to just 17% who felt the same about Labour. Similarly, asked to choose who, ...

Budget week is always a big moment in the political calendar, an opportunity for any Government to take the initiative and demonstrate that its priorities align with those of the country more broadly. With the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, having delivered his budget and spending review on Wednesday, by Thursday Sky News had published polling by Opinium on how people had responded. It found that the Conservatives maintain a healthy lead when people were asked about who was best at managing the economy. 40% said Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, with 25% saying the Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer and the Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves. Overall, 39% said they approved of the Budget, with 21% disapproving of it. 28% said the Budget would have a negative impact on their finances, with 18% saying it would be positive for them. 46% said the measures announced would make no difference to them. Importantly for the Conservatives, 38% said they felt the Budget was fair, compared to 30% who th...

The prevailing wisdom throughout the recent party conference season was that Boris Johnson was master of all he surveys. And yet, delving into the polls published during the past week, the gap between the Conservatives and Labour would not be described as decisive for the Tories. According to polling conducted on 18 th October by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, the Conservatives have a lead of just 3 points, with them on 40% and Labour on 37% in respect of voting intentions for Westminster. Data compiled by Kantar Public based on a survey carried out between 14 th and 18 th October puts the Conservatives on 39%, down 4 points since its last poll in September. Labour meanwhile is on 34%, up 4 points. YouGov’s weekly poll , carried out between 20 th and 21 st October,   sees the Conservatives drop 4 points compared to last week on 37%, with Labour up 2 points on 33%. Taking on board recent polling, the New Statesman’s election calculator suggests that if they were rep...