Is Boris Johnson’s Fall From Grace a Temporary Blip?

That the popularity of the Conservative Party and Boris Johnson especially has fallen sharply since last year’s general election is beyond doubt, if the polls are to be believed.  The question however is whether this represents an inevitable short term blip given the difficult decisions needing to be made during the COVID-19 pandemic, or a longer term problem for the Government?

The answer is that in the end we won’t really know until the UK goes to the polls again in four years’ time. What we do know though is that leading a Government through COVID-19 is not a one way street to plummeting unpopularity.

Take New Zealand for example, where the Labour Party, led by Jacinda Arden, has won a crushing victory in the general election.  The party secured 49.1% of the votes cast, up 12.2% since the last election in 2017 and in the process making it the first time the party has been able to govern on its own with an outright majority since 1996. As Reuters notes voters “rewarded” Arden “for a decisive response to COVID-19.”

In Australia the most recent Newspoll survey found that net satisfaction ratings for Prime Minister Scott Morrison stood at a healthy 65%, with dissatisfaction in the Leader of the Opposition Labour Party, Anthony Albanese at 43%, up three points from the last poll. 57% of respondents said Mr Morrison was the better person to be Prime Minister out of the two of them, a 29 point lead over Mr Albanese.

In Germany meanwhile, Angela Merkel’s personal approval ratings remain incredibly high. As Politico noted in July:

“The closer Merkel’s political end gets (her term ends in October 2021), the more popular she becomes. The German leader’s personal approval rating has soared to over 70 percent in recent months, largely thanks to her handling of the coronavirus pandemic, up from the mid-50 percent range a year ago.”

And what of closer to home? In Wales, YouGov’s most recent  Welsh Barometer survey, carried out at the end of August and start of September saw satisfaction ratings in Labour’s First Minister, Mark Drakeford, increase a little since the end of May and start of June, with him enjoying a lead over his opponents in Wales.

In Scotland meanwhile, despite the challenges of COVID, as highlighted recently on this blog, the SNP Leader and First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, remains way ahead of her rivals in the popularity stakes.

So is plummeting approval ratings an inevitable consequence for leaders handling responding to COVID-19? If this polling is to be believed, no. For that reason Boris Johnson and Number 10 should be worried at his dip in fortunes.

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