Poll to Poll

Just days after YouGov published polling suggesting that the Conservative Party had lost its lead over Labour for the first time since January, Opinium’s latest   poll shows something similar. The data, based on questions asked between the 9 th and 11 th September put the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck on 38% in respect of headline voting intentions for Westminster. Opinium notes that, as with YouGov, it is the first of its polls not to show a Conservative lead since January. Opinium’s data provides insight into how those who voted Conservative in 2019 would vote now. The figures, with changes since the 13 th May which Opinium says was the peak of the party’s vaccine bounce, in brackets show that: 66% would stick with the Conservatives (-16) 5% would switch to Labour (+2) 10% would switch to another party (+5) 18% were undecided how they would vote (+8) In terms of approval ratings for the Prime Minister, Opinium notes on its twitter feed that   Bori...

Labour HQ would be forgiven for raising a smile as YouGov’s latest poll for The Times gives the party a lead over the Conservatives for the first time since January. When it comes to headline voting intentions for Westminster it puts Labour on 35%, up one point since last week. The Conservatives meanwhile are on 33%, down five points. According to figures from Electoral Calculus, if replicated universally across the country at a General Election it would see Labour as the largest single party in the House of Commons with   283 seats, up 80 from 2019. The Conservatives would lose 97, securing 268 seats. YouGov’s data also puts the Liberal Democrats on 10%, up two points from last week. This would, according to Electoral Calculus, see the party win 19 seats in a General Election, 8 more than they won in 2019. In a week that has been dominated by debate around tax and how to finance the health and social care system 46% of respondent to YouGov felt that the amount they paid ...

On the 15 th August Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, called a snap general election to take place on 20 th September. Reporting on the announcement, Reuters noted: “Trudeau, 49, is betting that high vaccination rates against the virus and a post-pandemic economic rebound will help him prolong and strengthen his grip on power.” With just weeks to go until polling day however, could Trudeau live to regret his decision to take the country to the polls? If data released over the past week is to be believed quite possibly, as the opposition Conservative Party seems to have taken a lead. According to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s poll tracker the Conservatives, led by Erin O’Toole, are now leading on 34.1%, followed by the Liberal Party under the leadership of the Prime Minister on 31.2%. The New Democrat’s, led by Jagmeet Singh, are, according to the tracker, on 20.1%. Explaining the support for the Conservatives, the Financial Times has written : “Many...

With US troops now having fully withdrawn from Afghanistan, the Pew Research Center has published new   polling on the attitudes of those in the US towards the decision to leave and the handling of the evacuations of US citizens and Afghans who supported the US effort. The data shows that a majority of US adults (54%) believe it was the right thing to withdraw troops, with 42% saying it was the wrong thing. It finds also a sense of pessimism about the mission, with 69% arguing that the United States has “mostly failed in achieving its goals in Afghanistan.” Whilst the public seem to support troop withdrawals, they remain critical of the way it has been handled by the administration under President Biden. Just 26% say the administration has done an excellent or good job, 29% say it has done an only fair job and 42% say it has done a poor job. It goes on to say: “Just 7% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents rate the administration’s performance on Afghanistan pos...