Poll to Poll

With advance polling having started in Canada’s general election, formally taking place in a week’s time, and following a week in which leaders of the main political parties held their only debates, the Liberal Party led by Mark Carney continues to do well in the polls. According to CBC’s poll of polls , the Liberals are now on 43.3% of the vote with the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, on 38.4%. The central forecast is for the Liberals to have an outright majority of 195 seats in the Canadian House of Commons with the Conservatives on 122. The Liberals now have an 84% chance of returning to power with an outright majority, and a 15% probability of being the single largest party in a hung parliament. The Conservatives, according to the polls, have just 1% chance of being the biggest single party. In Australia meanwhile, the incumbent Labor Party will be increasingly confident of winning the general election there in just a couple of weeks’ time. According to the latest...

With Canadian’s due to vote in their general election in just two weeks’ time, the polling continues to point to the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, being on course to win.  According to CBC’s poll of polls the Liberals now stand on 44.3% of the vote, compared with the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, on 37.5%. Based on the data, the analysis suggests that the central forecast in terms of number of seats in the Canadian House of Commons is now 198 for the Liberals, clearly past the 172 seats needed for an outright majority.   This would be up from the 160 the party won under Justin Trudeau at the last election in 2021. The central forecast for the Conservatives is for 121 seats, just two more than the party won in 2021. The CBC data suggests that there is now an 87% chance of the Liberals winning a majority, a 12% chance of them being the biggest party in a hung parliament and just 1% chance of the Conservatives being the single largest party in the House of C...

At the end of the second week of campaigning in Canada’s general election, the Liberals under the leadership of Mark Carney, are seeing their poll lead over the Conservatives increase.  According to CBC’s poll of polls the Liberals are averaging 44.2% in the polls, seven points ahead of the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre on 37.3%. CBC’s analysis suggests that the Liberals “could win 200 seats or more for the first time in its history on current polling numbers.” This, remember is a party which, at the start of the year, under the leadership of Justin Trudeau, was odds on favourite to be ejected from office after a decade in power. CBC’s analysis suggests that, based on its figures, there is now a 96% probability of the Liberals winning a majority in the Canadian House of Commons, with a 3% chance of it having the most seats in a hung Parliament. It suggests that there is just a 1% chance of the Conservatives winning the most seats in a hung Parliament. Meanwhile, dow...