Poll to Poll

With Parliament set to approve the Brexit deal agreed between the EU and the UK on Christmas Eve, one of the UK’s most authoritative pollsters, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University, has delivered his verdict on whether it delivers what the voters want.   In a blog post for the What the UK Thinks website he provides a detailed breakdown of provisions within the agreement and how it stacks up against polling data. However, his three key headlines are as follows: 1.      The decision to end freedom of movement, taken by Theresa May shortly after she became Prime Minister, “clearly accords with the preference of a majority of voters.”   2.      Whilst Professor Curtice notes that “most voters were wanting to maintain tariff-free trade with the EU” , he warns that “the scope of the trade agreement may be somewhat narrower than many voters were anticipating, not least perhaps in failing to make provision for financial serv...

  “Two big issues of 2020 have been COVID and Brexit” the former Conservative Justice Secretary, David Gauke has said on Twitter . He goes on to note: “Occasionally they have touched but generally they have been separate. But now, like a TV series finale, the plots are brought together.” When it comes to Brexit, a week on Friday the UK is scheduled to end all formal ties with the European Union as we end the transition period. And yet, we are still not much closer to knowing whether a trade and security deal will be reached. But what does the polling tell us? According to Savanta ComRes , 49% of those polled in the UK expect no deal to be reached, with 18% expecting a deal. 37% also believe that the EU has the advantage in the talks, compared to just 24% who say the UK does. That said, respondents believe that the UK is best prepared for a no deal, with 33% saying it best prepared compared to 26% saying the EU is.   YouGov also has some interesting polling on the issue....

  “At the heart of the problem here”, said Labour Leader Keir Starmer in response to the last minute change to Christmas arrangements in the UK, “is a Prime Minister who simply doesn’t want to be unpopular and therefore won’t take the tough decisions that are necessary, until he is forced into them at the 11th hour. We can’t go on like that.” For most people the political ramifications for Boris Johnson are likely to be a second order issue when compared to the inconvenience and in some cases heartache they now face. But the reality is that Johnson now faces a political crisis as the attention turns to a basic question – is he actually up to being Prime Minister? Speaking on Times Radio over the weekend the former Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, declared : “My view of leadership is that you've got to be two steps ahead of events...we're not prepared for the next wave of the virus." If that is the test of leadership, which seems a fair assumption, then according to ne...

  As 2020 draws to an end, one of the underlying political themes has been the fragile state of the United Kingdom. A combination of Brexit and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have led many to question if the union as it is currently constituted can survive. Polls out this week have demonstrated clearly how the UK is now being pulled in different directions. In Scotland, the trend has been clear for some time – sustained support for independence. Earlier this week, polling by Survation found that 52% of those questioned supported independence, with 48% opposing it.   It was the 16 th poll in a row to put support for independence in the lead. Ahead of elections in May meanwhile to the Scottish Parliament the SNP continues to maintain a dominant lead. In respect of the constituency vote, the SNP are on 53% with Labour and the Conservatives both on 20%, the Liberal Democrats on 6% and other parties on 1%. For the regional list vote, the SNP are on 41%, the Conser...

As we approach almost a year since Boris Johnson secured the largest Conservative majority in a general election since Margaret Thatcher in 1987 what do the polls tell us about how things now stand on the key issues determined the result?   Firstly, Brexit. “Get Brexit Done” was the slogan the Prime Minister trotted out at every opportunity possible during the election. Whilst we did formally leave the EU at the end of January, with just days to go, we are still not much further to understanding how oven ready the PM’s “Oven Ready Deal” on a future trade partnership really was. According to an analysis of polling by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University,   the prospect of leaving the current transition period on 31 st December without any trade deal having been agreed “is very much a minority preference, backed by no more than a fifth or so of voters.” Polling by YouGov published last month found that 56% of voters felt the UK Government had handled Britain...

Exactly 30 years ago today, on 28 th November 1990, John Major became Prime Minister. In doing so he brought to an end the premiership of Margaret Thatcher, one of the most consequential political figures in modern British political history.   But what do the polling figures tell us about her time in office? Polling by Ipsos Mori in November 1990 found that as she left office, 52% of people felt that her time as Prime Minister had been good for the country, with 40% saying it had been bad. Asked about her personally Ipsos found that at the same time 52% disliked Thatcher and her policies, 8% disliked her but liked her policies, 19% liked Thatcher but not her policies and 20% liked both Thatcher and her policies. Ipsos goes on also to note : “On average during Mrs Thatcher’s premiership, 40% of the public were satisfied with the way she was doing her job while 54% were dissatisfied. But at the peak of her popularity (in June 1982, after the recapture of the Falklands), 59% ...

This was supposed to be the week of the dreaded Government relaunch. Following last week’s drama in Downing Street which saw the Prime Minister’s close aides, Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain leave their jobs, Boris Johnson had been determined to show that this meant a fresh approach from him personally and the Government more widely. However, as all former Prime Minister’s would attest, relaunching a party whilst in government is no easy feat, and so it proved for Mr Johnson. Putting aside the issue of being required to self-isolate after coming into contact with a backbench MP who tested positive for COVID, the Prime Minister’s week got off to a bad start. Scottish devolution, the PM argued during a Zoom meeting with Conservative MPs from the north of England, had been a “disaster” .   Whilst Downing Street sought to argue afterwards that he was referring to the SNP’s approach to devolution, the damage had already been done with a furious reaction from many across Scotland. T...