Poll to Poll

As Boris Johnson prepares for a New Year ‘relaunch’ he’ll be reading somewhat soberly recent polling. Opinium’s latest data for The Observer is based on a survey of 1,904 UK adults carried out between 21 st and 23 rd December. When it comes to headline voting intentions, Labour retains a lead on 39% with the Conservatives on 32%. Meanwhile, fresh from its victory in the North Shropshire by-electio,n the Lib Dems are on 11%, the highest vote share Opinium has given the party since the 2019 general election. When it comes to approval ratings, Boris Johnson now has a net rating of -31%, marginally better than his -35% two weeks ago. However, Opinium notes that this remains “comfortably among the worst we have recorded for him since he became prime minister.” Keir Starmer has a net approval rating of +4% as Leader of the Labour Party. Asked who they felt would make the best Prime Minister, 30% of respondents said Starmer with 24% opting for Boris Johnson. Digging deeper there ...

Today’s Opinium poll for The Observer gives Labour a 9 point lead, the largest lead the polling company has registered for the party since February 2014. When it comes to headline voting intentions, Labour is on 41%, up 3 points from a fortnight ago with the Conservatives on 32%, down 4 points. Diving into the detailed tables, in those English seats which the Conservatives gained in 2019 and hence gave Boris Johnson his landslide victory, Labour now has a 13 point lead, with the party on 50% compared to the Conservatives on 37%. When it comes to approval ratings for the main party leaders, Boris Johnson now has a net score of -35%, down from -21% two weeks ago. Opinium notes that this represents his worst approval rating since he became Prime Minister. Opinium goes on to note: “Even those who voted Conservative at the last election are divided on the Prime Minister’s leadership. 45% approve of the job he is doing, compared to 39% who disapprove.” In contrast, Labour Leader S...

In 2019 Boris Johnson was elected leader of the Conservative Party for two reasons. Firstly, to get Brexit done and secondly to appeal to parts of the electorate that no other Conservative could reach. Having got Brexit done and having secured an 80 seat majority in the General Election two years ago, the question that now arises after a bad week for the Government is whether, for the Conservative Party, Boris Johnson has outlived his usefulness. If polling this week is to be believed, quite possibly. Redfield and Wilton’s latest poll conducted on 8 th December gives Labour a 4 point lead when it comes to headline voting intentions with the party on 38% (up 2 points from 6 th December) and the Conservatives on 34%, down 4 points. The poll went on to find that 63% of respondents felt that the Prime Minister should resign if it is confirmed that the Christmas Party took place in Downing Street last year at a time when the Government had issued coronavirus restrictions which prev...

Deltapoll now gives Labour a 1 percentage point lead over the Conservatives in its latest poll for the Sun on Sunday. With the fieldwork carried out between the 2 nd and 4 th December, it puts the Conservatives on 37%, down 3 points since its last poll at the start of November. Labour meanwhile are up 1 point on 38% with the Lib Dems on 10%, up 2 points. Other parties remain unchanged on 15%. Meanwhile, Ipsos Mori last week published its latest Political Pulse   for November. The key headline, as the pollster notes, see “public favourability towards Boris Johnson at the lowest level since the Ipsos MORI Political Pulse began in 2019. 24% of the public are favourable towards the Prime Minister (-2 points from October) and 51% are unfavourable (+2 points).” This gives him a net favourability score of -27%. In contrast, 23% of the public are favourable to the Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer, with 44% unfavourable, giving him a net score of -21%. The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak ...

Opinium’s latest poll for The Observer will cause some nervousness within the Conservative Party following a week in which the Prime Minister delivered a shambolic speech to the CBI conference. When it comes to headline voting intentions, Labour retains a narrow two-point lead on 38%, with the Conservatives on 36%. In respect of the verdict on the main two party leaders, Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer has a net approval rating of +1%, with Boris Johnson on -17%. In those seats the Conservatives gained at the 2019 General Election however Boris Johnson has a net approval rating of -20%, whilst Keir Starmer is on -2. The Conservatives can hold on to a crumb of comfort by the fact that more respondents (29%) preferred Boris Johnson as Prime Minister to Keir Starmer (27%). That crumb however goes completely as, when asked to force to choose what kind of Government they would prefer, 42% preferred a Labour Government led by Keir Starmer compared to 36% preferring a Conservative Go...

With the SNP meeting, albeit virtually, for its annual conference, right on queue the pollsters have published data on the state of public opinion in Scotland. At YouGov , when it comes to headline voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament, the SNP are on 48% on the constituency vote, down 4 points from its last poll at the start of May, whilst the Conservatives are up 1 point on 21%. Labour are unchanged on 19% with the Liberal Democrats up 1 point on 7% and the Greens unchanged on 2%. When it comes to the regional list vote, the SNP are unchanged on 38% compared to the start of May, with the Conservative on 19% (down 1 point) and Labour up 3 points on 19%. The Greens are on 11% (-2) and the Liberal Democrats are up 2 points on 7%. When it comes to Scottish independence, the picture remains unchanged from May, with 52% opposing it and 47% supporting it when those who did not know were excluded. Over at Survation meanwhile, its polling for the Scotland in the Union organis...

Labour now has a two point lead over the Conservatives according to the latest poll from  Redfield & Wilton Strategies. It puts Labour on 38%, up 2 points since its last poll on Monday, with the Conservatives down 1 point on 36%. Savanta ComRes also published polling this week which, although showing a Conservative lead, showed things tightening between it and Labour. It put the Conservatives on 38%, down 2 points since the end of October with Labour unchanged on 35%. Meanwhile, as Boris Johnson told a news conference at the COP 26 climate talks in Glasgow that the UK is “not remotely a corrupt country", YouGov’s daily poll suggests the public does not necessarily agree. It found that in total 80% felt there was either a lot or a fair bit of corruption in British politics. Just 1% thought there was no corruption at all in British politics.