Poll to Poll

New polling out this week by YouGov has put Scottish Labour ahead of the SNP in Scotland for the first time since the independence referendum a decade ago. According to the data, when it comes to voting intentions for the UK general election, 33% of those questioned in Scotland plan to vote Labour, two points ahead of the SNP on 31%. It finds that among those who voted SNP at the 2019 election, 20% have now decided to vote Labour. The Conservatives meanwhile are on 14% of the vote, holding on to just over a half (54%) of those who voted for them in Scotland in 2019. The Scottish Conservatives have lost 19% of their 2019 voters to Labour, and 22% to Reform UK. In contrast to the changes in Westminster voting intentions, YouGov notes: “The story is static when it comes to Scottish independence. Currently 53% of Scots say they would vote No in a repeat of the 2014 referendum, compared to 47% who would vote Yes – this is the same split as it was the last time we asked in September...

The bleak mood among Conservative MPs will be bleaker still as a result of new polling for the civil society campaign, Best for Britain. Carried out by Survation, the poll of over 15,000 people was undertaken using an MRP analysis not long after the Budget. It puts Labour on 45%, with the Conservatives trailing way behind on 26.2%, the Liberal Democrats on 10.4% and Reform UK on 8.5%. The modelling suggests that if replicated at the General Election, the Conservatives would lose 250 MPs, slumping to 98 seats, with Labour on 468. The SNP would be on 41 seats with the Liberal Democrats on 22. As Best for Britain notes this would give Labour an overall majority in the House of Commons of 142 and it would be “the worst ever result for the Conservatives at a General Election.” It suggests that on this basis, just 13 cabinet ministers would keep their seats, with those reported as eyeing up the leadership of the party, such as the Leader of the House of Commons, Penny Mordaunt; the...

The Conservative gloom continues as polling this week has shown just what a difficult position the party is now in, with none of the potential replacements for Rishi Sunak likely to revive the party’s fortunes. YouGov’s latest poll puts Labour on 44%, with the Conservatives miles behind on 19% when it comes to Westminster voting intentions. As YouGov notes, for the Conservatives, this represents “the same share the party received at their lowest ebb in the aftermath of Liz Truss’s mini-Budget.” Reform UK are just four points behind the Conservatives on 15%. Meanwhile, YouGov reports   that whilst the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer continues to be the least unpopular political figure in the UK with a net favourability rating of -18, Rishi Sunak is languishing on a net rating of -50.   More worryingly still for the Conservative Party YouGov goes on to note: “those who voted for the Conservatives in 2019 have a more favourable opinion of Nigel Farage than they do of Rishi Suna...

That the Conservatives are in an electoral pickle is beyond doubt. Just this week, YouGov’s latest poll for The Times gave Labour a 24 point lead over the Conservatives. Meanwhile, Survation’s latest   data  puts Labour’s lead at  19 points with the Conservatives on their lowest vote share recorded by Survation since February 2023. After a torrid week for the Prime Minister in the wake of Lee Anderson’s defection to Reform UK, and Downing Street’s difficulties in responding to accusations of racism against one of the Conservatives’ biggest donors, the mood music seems to be shifting, with attention turning to the Leader of the House of Commons, Penny Mordaunt as a potential ‘unity’ candidate to replace the Prime Minister in an effort to stem the electoral meltdown the Conservatives now face. One only has to look at the headline to see how serious the proposition is being considered. The Sun on Sunday splashes with: “Tory rebels hatch plan to oust Rishi Sunak and hold ‘...

New polling by YouGov for The Times has reinforced the sense that Jeremy Hunt’s Budget this week has failed to move the political dial in the Conservatives’ favour. According to the poll, carried out between the 6 th and 7 th March, Labour now has a 27 point polling lead. When it comes to headline voting intentions for Westminster, 47% said they would vote Labour (up one point from the week before), compared to 20% saying Conservative (unchanged since the week before). The Conservatives, according to this poll, are now just 7 points ahead of Reform UK. Delving deeper, when it comes to headline voting intentions, among all those who said they voted Conservative at the 2016 General Election, fewer than half, 48%, said they will do so now. Around a quarter (26%) said they plan to vote Reform UK. Further polling by YouGov has also assessed the public’s attitudes to measures in the Budget. It notes that: “The most popular economic measures are freezing tax on petrol and diesel at ...

Following a Budget which had been touted by some as a potential precursor to a May general election, Savanta has published a snap poll looking at the public’s initial response. The results are not hugely encouraging for Rishi Sunak or Jeremy Hunt. Asked who they trusted most on the economy, 30.8% said the Conservative Party, compared to 42.3% saying Labour. Around 30% of those who voted Conservative at the 2019 general election could not say they trusted the Conservatives most on the economy.   Of this group, 14.3% said they trusted Labour most whilst 15.3% said they didn’t know which of Labour or the Conservatives they most trusted. Asked if they broadly supported or opposed the key measures announced in the Budget, less than half, 42.1% said they supported them, with 21.6% opposing them. 7.1% said they did not know. Interestingly, despite it being the most political measure by the Chancellor to shoot Labour’s foxes, of all the measures he announced, scrapping non-dom tax s...

Following scenes of utter chaos in the House of Commons on Wednesday as the Speaker broke precedence over which motions in relation to Israel and Gaza got debated, what, if any, impact has it had on the polls? According to YouGov’s poll for The Times out at the end of last week, Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has increased. It put Labour on 46%, up 2 points since the week before, with the Conservatives down 4 points on 20%. Opinium’s poll for The Observer meanwhile puts Labour down 1 point compared to last week on 42%, trailed by the Conservatives on 27%, unchanged compared to last week. On the substance of the issue that was of such controversy in the Commons, neither of the main party leaders seem to have performed all that well. According to the poll just 21% of the public approve of the way Rishi Sunak has responded to the hostilities in Israel and Gaza, followed by just 20% saying the same about Keir Starmer. Interestingly though whilst 56% of those planning to vote ...