Poll to Poll

That the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, faces an unenviable task as he prepares to deliver his second Budget this week is perhaps the understatement of the century. As the BBC has noted , as a result of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the country’s debt, as a percentage of GDP stands at 99.4%, the highest it has been since 1963. Government borrowing this year has also reached £270.6bn so far, with the Office for Budget Responsibility suggesting it could total £393.5bn by the end of the financial year in March, the highest level for any year since the Second World War. Against this backdrop, it is little wonder that the Chancellor is softening the country up for bad news, having pledged to “level with people” about the state of the economy and the measures that will be needed to get the public finances onto a more healthy trajectory.     But among the blizzard of economic and financial statistics we can expect over the coming week, what is the political background to th...

The Conservatives continue to enjoy a small advantage over Labour in YouGov’s latest poll . According to the data, which was gathered between 17 th and 18 th February, in respect of voting intentions for the UK Parliament, 40% opted for the Conservatives down 1 percentage point from its last poll between the 9 th and 10 th February. Labour are on 37% (up 1 point) with the Liberal Democrats on 7% (up 1 point). Asked which of Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer they preferred as Prime Minister 34% said Boris Johnson, up 1 point. 30% opted for the Labour leader, down 1 point. Those questioned were then asked how well, or badly, they felt the UK government is doing in handling the country’s departure from the European Union. Whilst 39% said ‘well’, 50% said ‘badly’. 47% of respondents said that with hindsight the UK was wrong to leave the European Union. This includes 16% of those who voted Conservative at the 2019 election and 10% of those who voted to leave the EU in 2016. 41% s...

Amidst concerns reported today that an increase in the time many ambulances spent waiting outside emergency departments over Christmas has created a number of “secondary COVID victims”, YouGov this week published polling on how healthcare workers feel the pandemic has affected the care provided to patients. According to the data 40% of NHS healthcare staff feel that the quality of patient care in their workplace has fallen compared to before the pandemic. YouGov notes that “this includes some 10% who say patient care quality is now “much lower” than normal.” 42% however said the quality of care had not changed, with 4% saying it had improved. In contrast, 60% of the private sector healthcare workers questioned said the quality of care had not changed as a result of the pandemic, with a further 20% saying the quality of care had fallen. Among staff caring for patients with chronic or long-term health conditions, 17% said they have “much less” time to give each patient the atten...

  IPSOS Mori has published some fascinating data on who MPs in each Party rate as being the most impressive parliamentarians. Among the 29 Labour MPs who were surveyed 62% rated their Leader, Keir Starmer, as the most impressive with his Shadow Chancellor, Anneliese Dodds, coming second, rated by 12% of those Labour MPs polled. It speaks to perhaps one of the party’s Achilles heels’ namely the lack of cut through members of the Shadow Cabinet, other than Keir Starmer, are having on the parliamentary party, let alone the public as a whole. Among the 49 Conservative MPs who responded, 44% chose the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, as the most impressive parliamentarian, followed by the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock on 23%. Just 6% felt that Boris Johnson was the most impressive parliamentarian, putting him behind, somewhat embarrassingly, not just the likes of Michael Gove but also   the backbench Conservative MP for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, Andrew Bowie. Ipsos Mori ob...

Support for Scottish independence has fallen by four percentage points according to a new poll out this week by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman newspaper. The figures show that when ‘don’t knows’ are included, 47% of Scottish voters support independence, 42% oppose it and 10% are undecided. It is the first time since December that support for Scotland going it alone has fallen below 50%. When those who do not know how they would vote in another referendum are excluded, support for independence is at 53%, with 47% opposing it. Despite the drop-in support, it nevertheless represents the 21 st poll in a row which has seen support for independence in the lead. However. providing a glimmer of hope to those who want to keep Scotland in the Union, Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University has argued in The Herald   that the independence movement has "at best been treading water during the winter". Meanwhile, despite an ongoing spat between the current First Mi...

In last week’s New Statesman Stephen Bush wrote eloquently of the challenges that Sir Keir Starmer, Leader of the Labour Party, now faces.   Under the headline, “A consensus is forming among the commentariat that Keir Starmer is not up to the job. Does it matter?” he outlines the jitters that some in the Labour Party now feel. Having seen the party and Kier Starmer personally at some points over the past few months over -take the Conservatives and Boris Johnson in the polls, what has become clear is that the polls now, by and large, point towards a swing back to the Conservatives as they enjoy a bounce from the successful vaccine roll out. Data published by Savanta Comres from a poll carried out between the 5 th and 7 th February puts the Conservatives on 41% (unchanged since the end of January) and Labour on 37% (down 1 percentage point). Polling by YouGov out today similarly puts the Conservatives on 41%, unchanged from the start of the month, with Labour down 1 poin...

Across the United States, and probably much of the world, many eyes will be focussed on the US Senate this Tuesday as the impeachment trial of former President, Donald Trump, begins.   It comes after the House of Representatives passed the article of impeachment against Trump for inciting sedition following the storming of Congress on 6 th January by his supporters. Having   lost a number of his legal team at the end of last month over differences in opinion about how to handle the trial, what we now know is that the current Trump team will   argue that the impeachment and trial of a now former President is unconstitutional. With that as the background, new polling by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research gives a new glimpse into the public’s attitudes to Donald Trump’s legacy as President. Its finds that 50% of those polled believe that Trump was a poor/terrible President, with 36% believing he was a great/good Commander in Chief. 15% ...