Poll to Poll

Support for Scotland becoming an independent country has fallen according to a new Panelbase poll for The Sunday Times.   The findings, based on a survey of 1,287 adults aged 16 and over in Scotland, found that with those who did not know excluded, 48% would support independence, down four points since Panelbase’s poll in April. 52% supported Scotland staying in the UK, up four points.   The poll also finds that: 19% felt an independence referendum should be held within the next year, with 35% supporting a vote in the next two to five years. 46% felt that there should not be another referendum in the next few years. 22% said that they thought independence will happen within five years, down 8% since April. That said, 24% believe it will happen between five and ten years, up 4% . The Sunday Times quotes Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University as saying that the poll indicates “a cooling of the independence ardour” since the elections to the Scottish P...

This week marked five years since the UK voted to leave the European Union, a decision which has shaken British politics in a way that few would have foreseen. To mark the occasion, Savanta ComRes this week published polling suggesting that if the referendum were held today, remain would just win, with 51% of respondents saying they would vote to stay in the EU compared to 49% who would vote to leave. The poll shows that there would be little switching from either side, with 6% of those who voted remain in 2016 saying they would not vote to leave, and 7% of those who originally voted to leave saying they would now vote remain. Savanta ComRes go on to say: “That means the Remain edge in this poll comes from those who did not vote in 2016, with this group being more than twice as likely to vote for Remain (71%) than Leave (29%).” The poll found however that if the public were asked instead to choose between joining the EU or not, 51% would vote not to become a member, whilst 49% w...

Ahead of the Batley and Spen by-election, triggered following the election of Tracy Brabin as Mayor of West Yorkshire, a new poll by Survaiton for the Daily Mail provides further sober reading for Labour. With voters due to go to the polls on 1 st July, it puts the Conservatives ahead on 47%, up 11% from its 2019 general election vote share, and Labour on 41%, similar to its 43% winning share at the general election.   Survation goes on to note: “George Galloway and his Workers Party are in 3rd place with a 6% vote share, which (albeit based on a small sample) includes 13% of Labour’s 2019 General Election vote in the constituency, and 0% of the Conservative 2019 General Election vote.” The poll shows also how popular Boris Johnson is in the seat, with the Prime Minister having a net approval rating of +18% compared to the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer, languishing on -32%. Survation continues: “Boris Johnson also has a strong lead over Keir Starmer from Batley and Spen voter...

That the Liberal Democrats have won the Chesham and Amersham by-election, triggered following the death of the former Welsh Secretary, Dame Cheryl Gillan, has caught many by surprise. It is a seat which, until now, has been held continuously by the Conservatives since it was formed in 1974, whilst in 2019, the General Election saw Dame Cheryl retain the seat with a majority of over 16,000. And yet, this is exactly the kind of seat where perhaps we should have expected an upset, with concerns within the constituency over the impact of the HS2 rail line and the implications of the Government’s proposed reforms to the planning system. Add to that figures from Principal Fish suggesting the seat voted 55% to 45% in favor of remaining in the European Union, and this was clearly ripe Liberal Democrat territory.   But what was the story of the night? Firstly, it was the success of the Liberal Democrats, with its candidate, Sarah Green securing a majority of just over 8,000 by wi...

As the G7 in Cornwall comes to an end, this weekend’s polling by Opinium for The Observer provides insights into how the public view the UK’s place in the world. The survey of 2,002 adults took place between the 10 th and 11 th June. Asked to say how influential various countries were on the world stage, the USA led the pack, with 79% saying it was influential, followed by 72% who said the same about China. 66% said Germany was influential with 61% saying Russia was. The UK came fifth, with 60% saying it was influential, ahead of counties including France, India and Japan. Focussing on the UK only, whilst 19% of respondents said the country had become more influential over the past ten years, 41% argued that it has become less so. Overall, 26% agreed that Brexit had made the UK more influential on the world stage, with 35% arguing it had made it less so. 27% said that leaving the European Union had made no difference to the UK’s standing in the world. Asked to say if they fe...

As Boris Johnson this weekend basks in the glory of parading on the international stage as he hosts the G7 in Cornwall, Labour would be forgiven for feeling sick as a parrot as it is forced to be reminded of its inability to do anything as the Prime Minister sites down with world leaders. That feeling is unlikely to have been helped by Ipsos Mori’s Political Monitor published this week. Based on a poll undertaken of 1,002 adults in Britain between 28 th May and 3 rd June, on headline voting intentions, the Conservatives have a nine-point lead, with them on 44% compared to Labour on 35%. Just 22% of respondents said that they were satisfied with the job that Keir Starmer was doing as Leader of the Labour Party, with 51% being dissatisfied. To put that into context, his net approval rating of -29 is, according to Ipsos Mori , the lowest rating he has had since becoming leader. Ipsos Mori note also that Starmer’s rating is “the same as the one Jeremy Corbyn received 14 months into ...

Twenty years ago today New Labour achieved what was Tony Blair’s priority during his first term in office – a clear second consecutive term for a Labour government. As outlined in a briefing from the House of Commons Library, securing a majority of 166, and making a net loss of just 6 seats was an undoubted triumph. And yet, as we consider the state of the Labour Party today, despite having secured such a large majority, did 2001 mark the start of Labour’s long journey of decline to the point that we now see? Take the turnout which demonstrated a distinct lack of enthusiasm on the part of voters. At 59.4%, not only was it down 12 percentage points compared to the 1997 election, it was also the lowest turnout of any election since 1918. It meant that more people did not bother to vote than voted for Labour to be returned to government. In contrast, in 1983, Margaret Thatcher’s second victory saw the Conservative Party’s majority increase from 44 to 144, on a turnout of 72.7%. ...

The Conservative now enjoy a 16 point poll lead over Labour according to the latest figures from YouGov for The Times. In terms of headline voting intentions for Westminster, the poll, carried out between the 2 nd and 3 rd June puts the Conservatives on 46%, up 3 points since a week ago. Labour are on 30%, up 1 point.   Survation ComRes this week also published the results of polling carried out between 28 th and 30 th May, putting the Conservatives on 42%, down one point compared to its last poll between the 21 st and 23 rd May. Labour were down 2 points on 32%. The best polling for Labour meanwhile came this week from Survation. Its data , gathered between the 1 st and 2 nd June gave the Conservatives a single digit lead of 8 points. The Conservatives were on 41%, down 2 points compared to Survation’s last poll between the 27 th and 28 th May. Labour were unchanged on 33%.

Just a day after the Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer’s interview for Piers Morgan’s Life Stories show went to air, new polling suggests that the public might be ready for a change in leadership within the Labour Party. According to the data gathered by   Redfield & Wilton Strategies 37% of the public believe Labour should change its leader now, with 28% saying it should not. This includes 43% of 2019 Conservative voters, and 40% of Labour voters who believe Keir Starmer should be replaced now. 37% of those polled said they would support a change of Labour leader before the 2024 General Election with 38% saying they would neither support nor oppose such a leadership change. Redfield & Wilton go on to note: “At 49%, almost half of 2019 Labour voters would support replacing Keir Starmer ahead of the next General Election, possibly indicating that they see Starmer as an electoral liability. Only 15% of respondents would oppose Keir Starmer being replaced as Leader ahead o...