Reform UK Now More Than a Protest Movement

With Reform UK doing so well in the polls, in a well time intervention, the team behind the British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey has published a fascinating insight into the characteristics of those supporting Nigel Farage’s party.  

Key data in it is as follows:

Reform voters are generally older

Older voters are more likely than younger ones to say they support Reform UK. The BSA study suggests that among those aged 55 and over 27% said they backed Reform, nine points more than the same figure among those aged below 35. The BSA notes that this is “the very opposite of that for the Greens who are much more popular among younger than older people.”

The BSA continues by observing that in general, support for Reform UK is up 12 points compared to how it performed in the 2024 General Election among those aged 55 and over, twice as much as the rise in support the party has secured in the same period among those under the age of 35.

Impact of education on Reform support

Among those who cite their highest educational qualification as being less than the equivalent of an A-level, two in five say they support Reform UK, with just 9% of graduates supporting the party. The BSA continues: “It is the most popular party of all among the less well educationally qualified, but has the least support of any party among those with a degree. Again, the profile of Reform’s support is very different from that of the Greens, and indeed also stands in contrast to that for Labour.”

The analysis goes on to note that “Reform’s current support among graduates is…only four points above what the party secured in the 2024 election, while the equivalent figure among those with an A- level is only six points.

Other key demographic factors related to Reform support

Whilst 28% of men say they support Reform UK, this falls to 19% among women.

Just 8% of those from a minority ethnic background say that they support Reform, 18 points below the same  figure for those who say they are White. The BSA notes that this “represents a 4-point increase in Reform’s support since the 2024 election among those from a minority background, well below the eleven-point rise among those who identify as White. Again there has been a widening of the demographic divide in the pattern of Reform support.

In respect of national identity, among those who best describe their nationality as ‘English’ as opposed to ‘British’, 37% support Reform, as opposed to 19% of those identifying their primary nationality as British. The BSA notes that the 18-point difference “is almost twice the 10-point gap between the two groups in their pattern of voting for Reform in 2024.”

Reform supporters are more discontented than the rest of the country

The BSA analysis reports that:

• 60% of Reform supporters are ‘very dissatisfied’ with the NHS, compared with 51% of the general public.
• In 2024 75% of Reform supporters said that the system of governing Britain needs ‘a great deal’ of improvement, almost twice the proportion (39%) among the general public
• Among Reform supporters, 27% say they are ‘struggling’ on their current household income, five points above the figure for the general public (22%)

Reform supporters are also more social conservative than the rest of the county

The BSA reports that:

• 75% of Reform supporters believe that migrants who come to Britain undermine the country’s culture. Only 35% of the general public agree with them.
• Support for the party stands at 49% among those who would vote to stay out of the EU, while just 9% of those who would vote to rejoin back Reform.
• 88% of Reform supporters believe that attempts to give equal opportunities to transgender people have ‘gone too far’, well above the proportion among the public in general (48%).
• 78% of Reform supporters say that ‘benefits for unemployed people are too high’, compared with 60% of the general public.

Summing up what the results show, Sir John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow at NatCen and a BSA co-author has noted that it shows that Reform UK is now far more than just vehicle for a protest movement. He has said: “Voters haven’t swung towards Reform simply because of dissatisfaction with ailing public services and economic stagnation. The party’s supporters are deeply ideological and have a level of emotional attachment that neither Labour nor the Conservatives have managed to inspire in voters for decades.

“The roots of the party’s support lie in the vote to Leave the EU, a vote that was motivated by cultural questions of national identity, immigration, and pride in British history. Ten years on from the referendum, these issues continue to disrupt British politics. In particular, Reform has effectively absorbed the coalition of voters that voted in 2019 for Boris Johnson to ‘get Brexit done.

“The party’s future prospects do not simply rest on whether the economy and the health service are turned around and whether by the time of the next election voters become more satisfied with how they are being governed. They also rest heavily on whether it can continue to persuade Britain’s more socially conservative voters that it best represents their views.”