Poll to Poll

  For nationalists across Europe the problems the European Union has encountered in securing sufficient supplies of COVID-19 vaccines will provide a political moment to exploit. It will embolden those who feel that nation states should take care of their own affairs. The move will play especially into the hands of Marine Le Pen, leader of the French National Rally, formally the National Front. It comes on the back of a faulting response by the Government of President Emmanuel Macron to the pandemic. As far back as October one poll found that 61% of those surveyed in France felt he had not handled the pandemic well. Add to that the recent news that police in France have detained seven people in connection with the beheading in October of teacher Samuel Paty by Abdoullakh Anzorov after Patry showed caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed during a class debate on free expression and the terrain could hardly be better for Le Pen.   Perhaps not surprisingly she has now proposed ...

  It is now a week since Joe Biden became President of the United States, inheriting one of the most challenging in trays of any incoming President in modern history. After a week which has seen him sign numerous Executive Orders focussed on the country’s response to COVID and reversing many Trump ‘era polices such as the border wall with Mexico and re-joining both the Paris Climate Change Agreement and the World Health Organisation, one poll suggests that the new President’s ‘honeymoon’ continues. According to data within an ABC News/Ipsos poll 69% of Americans approve of the way the President is handling the response to the COVID-19 pandemic with 81% supporting the new federal mask requirements. This includes 99% of all Democrats who support it, 59% of Republicans and 63% of Independents. On a number of other policies being enacted by the Biden administration: 77% support a government-wide approach to civil rights and racial justice. 83% support prohibiting workplace g...

As we start 2021, one of the major political moments of the year will be when voters got to the polls to elect a new Scottish Parliament, currently scheduled to take place in May. Make no mistake about it the vote could mark the start of a journey which takes Scotland out of the UK altogether. That the SNP’s poll numbers and those for Nicola Sturgeon are extremely high for a party that first came to office in 2007 is beyond dispute.   What will be worrying Downing Street the most is the news that the 19 th consecutive poll now puts support for independence in Scotland ahead of support for staying in the UK. According to the figures from Survation for the   pro-independence Scot Goes Pop blog, with those who did not know how they would vote in another referendum excluded, 51% of those questioned said Scotland should be independent while 49% said it should not. That said, voters will also be going to the poll in Wales this year to elect a new Senedd, a contest which no...

With Parliament set to approve the Brexit deal agreed between the EU and the UK on Christmas Eve, one of the UK’s most authoritative pollsters, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University, has delivered his verdict on whether it delivers what the voters want.   In a blog post for the What the UK Thinks website he provides a detailed breakdown of provisions within the agreement and how it stacks up against polling data. However, his three key headlines are as follows: 1.      The decision to end freedom of movement, taken by Theresa May shortly after she became Prime Minister, “clearly accords with the preference of a majority of voters.”   2.      Whilst Professor Curtice notes that “most voters were wanting to maintain tariff-free trade with the EU” , he warns that “the scope of the trade agreement may be somewhat narrower than many voters were anticipating, not least perhaps in failing to make provision for financial serv...

  “Two big issues of 2020 have been COVID and Brexit” the former Conservative Justice Secretary, David Gauke has said on Twitter . He goes on to note: “Occasionally they have touched but generally they have been separate. But now, like a TV series finale, the plots are brought together.” When it comes to Brexit, a week on Friday the UK is scheduled to end all formal ties with the European Union as we end the transition period. And yet, we are still not much closer to knowing whether a trade and security deal will be reached. But what does the polling tell us? According to Savanta ComRes , 49% of those polled in the UK expect no deal to be reached, with 18% expecting a deal. 37% also believe that the EU has the advantage in the talks, compared to just 24% who say the UK does. That said, respondents believe that the UK is best prepared for a no deal, with 33% saying it best prepared compared to 26% saying the EU is.   YouGov also has some interesting polling on the issue....

  “At the heart of the problem here”, said Labour Leader Keir Starmer in response to the last minute change to Christmas arrangements in the UK, “is a Prime Minister who simply doesn’t want to be unpopular and therefore won’t take the tough decisions that are necessary, until he is forced into them at the 11th hour. We can’t go on like that.” For most people the political ramifications for Boris Johnson are likely to be a second order issue when compared to the inconvenience and in some cases heartache they now face. But the reality is that Johnson now faces a political crisis as the attention turns to a basic question – is he actually up to being Prime Minister? Speaking on Times Radio over the weekend the former Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, declared : “My view of leadership is that you've got to be two steps ahead of events...we're not prepared for the next wave of the virus." If that is the test of leadership, which seems a fair assumption, then according to ne...

  As 2020 draws to an end, one of the underlying political themes has been the fragile state of the United Kingdom. A combination of Brexit and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have led many to question if the union as it is currently constituted can survive. Polls out this week have demonstrated clearly how the UK is now being pulled in different directions. In Scotland, the trend has been clear for some time – sustained support for independence. Earlier this week, polling by Survation found that 52% of those questioned supported independence, with 48% opposing it.   It was the 16 th poll in a row to put support for independence in the lead. Ahead of elections in May meanwhile to the Scottish Parliament the SNP continues to maintain a dominant lead. In respect of the constituency vote, the SNP are on 53% with Labour and the Conservatives both on 20%, the Liberal Democrats on 6% and other parties on 1%. For the regional list vote, the SNP are on 41%, the Conser...