Poll to Poll

In the wake of local elections in May and the party losing the Hartlepool Parliamentary by-election, there had been some chatter about a potential leadership challenge to Keir Starmer as Leader of the Labour Party. Just months later however, the most recent round of polls shows the gap between Labour and the Conservatives getting noticeable smaller. YouGov’s recent poll , carried out between the 20 th and 21 st July has the Conservatives on 38%, down six percentage points since its previous poll carried out between 15 th and 16 th July. Labour meanwhile were up three points to 34%. Survation last undertook a poll on voting intentions on 23 rd July which gives by far the smallest lead for the Conservatives showing them to be on 39% unchanged since its last poll between 19 th and 20 th July. Labour meanwhile were on 37%, up one point. Savanta ComRes last questioned the public on voting intentions between 23 rd and 25 th July. This put the Conservatives on 40%, down one...

  The Labour Party is basking in the glory of what many felt was an unlikely victory in the Batley and Spen by-election. The result   saw Labour’s majority slashed from the 3,525 it secured at the 2019 election to just 323, with Labour’s Kim Leadbetter winning 13,296 votes followed in second place by the Conservatives’ Ryan Stephenson with 12,973. George Galloway for the Workers Party, who had taunted Labour with the prospect of it coming third ironically enough came third himself with 8,264 votes. In terms of the share of the vote, Labour won 35.3%, well down on the 42.7% it won in 2019. The Conservatives also saw its share dip slightly to 34.4% compared to 36% in 2019. The BBC’s Political Correspondent, Iain Watson, has noted that there was a swing of 3% from Labour to Conservatives in the by-election which, if reproduced across the country at a general election, would see Labour lose 11 seats. Speaking to TalkRadio, the polling expert, Professor Sir John Curtice, ...

Support for Scotland becoming an independent country has fallen according to a new Panelbase poll for The Sunday Times.   The findings, based on a survey of 1,287 adults aged 16 and over in Scotland, found that with those who did not know excluded, 48% would support independence, down four points since Panelbase’s poll in April. 52% supported Scotland staying in the UK, up four points.   The poll also finds that: 19% felt an independence referendum should be held within the next year, with 35% supporting a vote in the next two to five years. 46% felt that there should not be another referendum in the next few years. 22% said that they thought independence will happen within five years, down 8% since April. That said, 24% believe it will happen between five and ten years, up 4% . The Sunday Times quotes Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University as saying that the poll indicates “a cooling of the independence ardour” since the elections to the Scottish P...

This week marked five years since the UK voted to leave the European Union, a decision which has shaken British politics in a way that few would have foreseen. To mark the occasion, Savanta ComRes this week published polling suggesting that if the referendum were held today, remain would just win, with 51% of respondents saying they would vote to stay in the EU compared to 49% who would vote to leave. The poll shows that there would be little switching from either side, with 6% of those who voted remain in 2016 saying they would not vote to leave, and 7% of those who originally voted to leave saying they would now vote remain. Savanta ComRes go on to say: “That means the Remain edge in this poll comes from those who did not vote in 2016, with this group being more than twice as likely to vote for Remain (71%) than Leave (29%).” The poll found however that if the public were asked instead to choose between joining the EU or not, 51% would vote not to become a member, whilst 49% w...

Ahead of the Batley and Spen by-election, triggered following the election of Tracy Brabin as Mayor of West Yorkshire, a new poll by Survaiton for the Daily Mail provides further sober reading for Labour. With voters due to go to the polls on 1 st July, it puts the Conservatives ahead on 47%, up 11% from its 2019 general election vote share, and Labour on 41%, similar to its 43% winning share at the general election.   Survation goes on to note: “George Galloway and his Workers Party are in 3rd place with a 6% vote share, which (albeit based on a small sample) includes 13% of Labour’s 2019 General Election vote in the constituency, and 0% of the Conservative 2019 General Election vote.” The poll shows also how popular Boris Johnson is in the seat, with the Prime Minister having a net approval rating of +18% compared to the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer, languishing on -32%. Survation continues: “Boris Johnson also has a strong lead over Keir Starmer from Batley and Spen voter...

That the Liberal Democrats have won the Chesham and Amersham by-election, triggered following the death of the former Welsh Secretary, Dame Cheryl Gillan, has caught many by surprise. It is a seat which, until now, has been held continuously by the Conservatives since it was formed in 1974, whilst in 2019, the General Election saw Dame Cheryl retain the seat with a majority of over 16,000. And yet, this is exactly the kind of seat where perhaps we should have expected an upset, with concerns within the constituency over the impact of the HS2 rail line and the implications of the Government’s proposed reforms to the planning system. Add to that figures from Principal Fish suggesting the seat voted 55% to 45% in favor of remaining in the European Union, and this was clearly ripe Liberal Democrat territory.   But what was the story of the night? Firstly, it was the success of the Liberal Democrats, with its candidate, Sarah Green securing a majority of just over 8,000 by wi...

As the G7 in Cornwall comes to an end, this weekend’s polling by Opinium for The Observer provides insights into how the public view the UK’s place in the world. The survey of 2,002 adults took place between the 10 th and 11 th June. Asked to say how influential various countries were on the world stage, the USA led the pack, with 79% saying it was influential, followed by 72% who said the same about China. 66% said Germany was influential with 61% saying Russia was. The UK came fifth, with 60% saying it was influential, ahead of counties including France, India and Japan. Focussing on the UK only, whilst 19% of respondents said the country had become more influential over the past ten years, 41% argued that it has become less so. Overall, 26% agreed that Brexit had made the UK more influential on the world stage, with 35% arguing it had made it less so. 27% said that leaving the European Union had made no difference to the UK’s standing in the world. Asked to say if they fe...