Poll to Poll

With the Conservative Party due tomorrow to confirm who will replace Boris Johnson as leader and Prime Minister, Opinium has published it latest fortnightly polling for The Observer. Of note, the next Prime Minister will enter Downing Street with Labour in the lead when it comes to voting intentions for the UK Parliament. The poll puts Labour on 38%, with the Conservatives on 34%. Asked to choose who would make the best Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, just 21% say the former Chancellor with 29% opting for the Labour Leader. Comparing Liz Truss with Starmer, 20% say Liz Truss would make the better PM, compared to 29% saying Keir Starmer. When comparing both Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, among the public as a whole, just 17% say Truss would be the better Prime Minister, compared to 24% who say Rishi Sunak. 45% say neither of them would make the best Prime Minister. Looking at just those who voted Conservative in 2019, 30% say Sunak would be the best Prime Min...

As Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss prepare to debate each other on the BBC on why they should lead the Conservative Party, Opinium this weekend published the latest   polling on the state of the race.   Amongst all voters, 43% said Rishi Sunak would be a good Prime Minister compared to 45% saying he would make a bad one. When it comes to Liz Truss, 36% said she would make a good Prime Minister compared to 41% saying she would make a bad one. Among those who voted Conservative in 2019, 59% say Rishi Sunak would make a good prime minister compared to 35% saying he would make a bad one. 55% say Liz Truss would make a good PM with 29% saying she would be a bad one. When forced to choose what they would prefer, namely a Labour Government led by Keir Starmer or a Conservative one led by Rishi Sunak, among all voters 42% said Starmer with 36% opting for Sunak. In comparison, in a Starmer/Truss contest, 40% would prefer Starmer with 39% going for a Liz Truss led Government. Asked i...

As the Conservative Party grapples with the fall out from the resignation of its Deputy Chief Whip, nerves will not be calmed by new polling by Ipsos Mori showing that the party is on its lowest score since 2011 on being seen as ‘fit to govern’. The organisation’s latest Political Monitor gives Labour an 11 point lead when it comes to headline voting intentions, with Labour on 41% compared to the Conservatives on 30%. In the wake of its by-election victory in Tiverton and Honiton, the Liberal Democrats are now on 15%. On a whole host of issues, Labour has a lead over the Conservatives, including 33% saying Labour is fit to govern, compared to just 21% who say the same about the Conservatives. Worryingly for Conservative headquarters, the party has a 19-point lead over Labour when people are asked to identify which party they perceive to be “divided” or “will promise anything to win votes.” In addition, the Tories have a 14-point lead when it comes to which party is seen as “extr...

After a week which saw 40% of Conservative MPs voting to express no confidence in Boris Johnson, new polling by Ipsos Mori will serve only to embolden those who continue to want the Prime Minister removed from office. Overall, 49% of those questioned said Boris Johnson was doing a bad job as Prime Minister, compared to 31% saying he was doing well. 50% said the Government has a whole was doing a bad job of running the country, compared to 29% who said it was doing well in this regard. Asked about the confidence vote in the Prime Minister, 51% of those surveyed said Conservative MPs were wrong to keep Boris Johnson in post, compared to 36% who said it was the right thing to do. Among those who voted Conservative at the 2019 General Election, 26% felt that Conservative MPs were wrong to retain confidence in the Prime Minister. Overall, 50% would support the Prime Minister resigning, with 29% saying they would oppose such a move. 59% feel it is unlikely that Boris Johnson will wi...

Whether it’s the booing he faced when arriving for the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee service at St Paul’s Cathedral,   or being challenged by a Mumsnet user as to why he was a “habitual liar” , Boris Johnson will have been left in no doubt this week about the slump he now faces. More importantly however will be that backbench Conservative MPs will have clocked it all as they consider if now is the right time to trigger a vote of confidence in his leadership of the party. But what will be worrying backbenchers the most will be the prospect, ultimately of them losing their seats. Later this month, by elections in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton will provide a glimpse into the electoral damage Boris Johnson might be causing for the Conservatives. The Devon seat of Tiverton and Honiton should, in theory, be safe for the Conservatives. In 2019 the party secured a majority of over 24,000. And yet, there are nerves at Conservative HQ. One only has to look at North Shropshire to...

YouGov’s new MRP model out today will make for grim reading for Conservatives across the country. The model is based on interviews held with over 15,045 voters across England between 19 th and 27 th May, and 2,086 voters in Wales between 28 th April and 27 th May. The headline suggests that of the 88 constituencies which the Conservatives either (a) won from Labour in 2019, or (b) currently hold with a majority of less than 15 points over Labour, just three, under this model, would remain Conservative: Ashfield, Bassetlaw, and Dudley North. Under this scenario the Prime Minister would also lose his London seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip. To add to the party’s woes, YouGov goes on to note: “Looking at ‘Blue Wall’ areas where Labour are principle the challengers to the Conservatives, and there is yet more pain for the governing party. Every seat in London and the South under the battleground definition falls to Keir Starmer’s party: from Iain Duncan-Smith’s constituency of ...

IPSOS Mori has published its latest Political Monitor . It gives Labour a 6-point lead when it comes to headline voting intentions, with the party on 39% and the Conservatives on 33%.   When it comes to the economy, 72% of respondents said they felt it would get worse over the next year with just 15% expecting it to improve. Whilst the Conservatives lead Labour when it comes to which party voters think is best placed to grow the economy (36% say Conservative, 27% say Labour), the positions are switched on the cost of living. 37% say Labour is best placed to reduce their family’s cost of living, with 22% saying the same about the Conservatives. 39% say Labour is best positioned to ‘level-up’ the country, with just 18% saying the same about the Conservatives. Savanta ComRes has also published its latest polling data. It puts the Conservatives on 34%, unchanged since its last poll carried out between 6 th and 8 th May. Labour meanwhile are up 2 points on 41%. Keir Starm...