Poll to Poll

It is just weeks since the Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Government and Parliament do not have the power to legislate for a formal referendum on independence. Since then, SNP MP after SNP MP have continued to question UK Government Ministers about why they are standing in the way of the mandate the party has repeatedly received for a second vote at UK and Scottish General Elections. Whilst Rishi Sunak has made clear he will not be allowing a further independence referendum anytime soon, what do the polls now say? Ipsos Mori this week provided an answer, thanks to its data for STV. It reported that among those with a voting intention and very likely to vote, 56% say they would vote Yes to Scotland becoming an independence country, up 6 points since May. 44% said they would vote No. Ipsos Mori goes on to note: “The SNP remain the dominant party in Scotland – 51% of those likely to vote say they would vote for them in an immediate General Election. Labour remains in second ...

With the future of Liz Truss as Prime Minister hanging in the balance, current polling will be weighing heavy on the minds of Conservative MPs. As they do so, they would be forgiven for looking for a strong drink to fortify them. Polling by Deltapoll finds that when asked how well each of the party leaders are doing, Liz Truss now has a net rating of, -54 with just 18% saying she is doing well. Keir Starmer on the other hand has a net rating of +11 with 48% saying he is doing well. 52% of respondents said they felt a Labour government led by Keir Starmer with Rachel Reeves as Chancellor of the Exchequer would be best for the economy, compared to just 22% saying the same about the Conservatives. Savanta ComRes has reported that 60% of people feel both Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng are equally to blame for the economic situation the UK faces. What is more, whilst 6% say the former Chancellor was most to blame, 24% pin the blame on the Prime Minister.   71% of those responding ...

As the SNP meets for its annual conference in Aberdeen, new polling by YouGov for The Times demonstrates that Liz Truss’ headaches just get worse across Scotland. The poll of over 1,000 adults in Scotland between the 30 th September and 4 th October shows that when it comes to voting intentions for the UK Parliament, the SNP remains the dominant force. It puts the party on 45%, just 1 point down from where it polled the last time YouGov carried out a survey like this in May. Labour too will be cheered by news that it is has clearly overtaken the Conservatives as the second placed party in Scotland. It is now on 31%, up 9 points since May. The Scottish Conservatives meanwhile are polling on 12%, down 7 points since May. When it comes to people’s views on independence, when those who said they did not know how they would vote in a second referendum are excluded, 45% say they would vote to support Scotland becoming an independent country with 55% saying they would oppose it. ...

With perfect timing, as the Conservative Party begins its annual conference in Birmingham today, Opinium has published it latest polling . When it comes to headline voting intentions, it gives Labour a 19 point lead, putting the party on 46% of the vote, up 7 points compared to last week. In contrast, the Conservatives are down 7 points on 27% with the Liberal Democrats down 1 point on 9%. For the Prime Minister, her net approval rating has plummeted from -9 last week to -37 now. Opinium notes: “This is worse than Boris Johnson’s last numbers on 22nd June (net -28), but slightly better than his worst score of net -42 on 12th Jan when the worst of the Partygate story broke out.” 35% say Keir Starmer would make the best Prime Minister compared to 18% opting for Liz Truss and 36% saying ‘none of these’. Interestingly, just 32% of those who voted Conservative in 2016 say Truss would make the best Prime Minister with 18% choosing Starmer and 40% saying ‘none of these’. Opinium goes ...

Turbulence in the financial markets this week has been equally matched by a dramatic week on the political markets. As the Labour faithful gathered in Liverpool this week for its annual conference there was a clear air of expectation that the party is on the brink of winning the next election. It’s an expectation based on a set of dramatic polls out this week. Most dramatic of all was YouGov’s poll for The Times giving Labour a 33 point lead,   the highest figure the party has ever recorded in any published poll since the late 1990s. The poll, published on Thursday, put Labour on 54% (up 9 points compared with the start of the week), with the Conservatives on 21% (down 7 points) and the Liberal Democrats on 7% (down 2 points). Analysing the reasons for Labour’s lead, YouGov shows among those who voted Conservative at the 2019 election, 17% said they would now vote Labour. It goes on to note that just 37% who voted Conservative last time plan to do so at the next election. ...

With the Conservative Party due tomorrow to confirm who will replace Boris Johnson as leader and Prime Minister, Opinium has published it latest fortnightly polling for The Observer. Of note, the next Prime Minister will enter Downing Street with Labour in the lead when it comes to voting intentions for the UK Parliament. The poll puts Labour on 38%, with the Conservatives on 34%. Asked to choose who would make the best Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, just 21% say the former Chancellor with 29% opting for the Labour Leader. Comparing Liz Truss with Starmer, 20% say Liz Truss would make the better PM, compared to 29% saying Keir Starmer. When comparing both Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, among the public as a whole, just 17% say Truss would be the better Prime Minister, compared to 24% who say Rishi Sunak. 45% say neither of them would make the best Prime Minister. Looking at just those who voted Conservative in 2019, 30% say Sunak would be the best Prime Min...

As Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss prepare to debate each other on the BBC on why they should lead the Conservative Party, Opinium this weekend published the latest   polling on the state of the race.   Amongst all voters, 43% said Rishi Sunak would be a good Prime Minister compared to 45% saying he would make a bad one. When it comes to Liz Truss, 36% said she would make a good Prime Minister compared to 41% saying she would make a bad one. Among those who voted Conservative in 2019, 59% say Rishi Sunak would make a good prime minister compared to 35% saying he would make a bad one. 55% say Liz Truss would make a good PM with 29% saying she would be a bad one. When forced to choose what they would prefer, namely a Labour Government led by Keir Starmer or a Conservative one led by Rishi Sunak, among all voters 42% said Starmer with 36% opting for Sunak. In comparison, in a Starmer/Truss contest, 40% would prefer Starmer with 39% going for a Liz Truss led Government. Asked i...