Poll to Poll

In his party conference speech the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, sought to set himself up as the ‘change’ candidate, a difficult feat to say the least after 13 years of Conservative government. The difficulty has been highlighted even more starkly thanks to Ipsos Mori’s latest Political Monitor . It finds that among all voters, 40% say they trust Labour Leader, Keir Starmer, to deliver the “change that Britain needs” compared to just 26% saying the same about the Prime Minister. When it comes to headline voting intentions, Labour, according to Ipsos has a 20-point lead, with it on 44% compared to the Conservatives on 24%. In a sign of the mountain that the Government has to climb, the poll finds that 55% of those questioned expect the general economic condition of the country will get worse over the next 12 months, with just 21% saying they expect it to improve. Opinium’s latest poll for The Observer puts Labour on 42% (down 2 points from a fortnight ago) with the Conservativ...

Following Labour’s stunning victories in the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections, the polling guru, Professor Sir John Curtice declared the Conservative losses as “exceptional.” He went on to say, ominously for Conservative HQ: “The Conservative party faces the serious prospect of losing the next general election heavily and maybe even more heavily than they did in 1997.”   What makes the situation faced by the Conservatives even more difficult is the fact that Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire are just one bit of a wider polling puzzle pointing to a heavy defeat at the General Election. This week for example, Deltapoll published data giving Labour a 20 point polling lead, with Labour on 47% compared to the Conservatives on 27%. Redfield and Wilton Strategies’ latest   poll is slightly better for the Conservatives, in as much as it gives Labour a 14 point lead, with Labour on 43% compared to the Conservatives on 29%. However, YouGov’s research gives Labour a 23...

If you thought the party conference season was over, think again. The SNP are this week meeting for the party’s annual get together in Aberdeen. They do so against a difficult political backdrop with the police investigating the party’s financial affairs, the loss of the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, the defection of one of their MPs to the Conservatives and no viable route to achieve their dream of independence. To make matters worse for the SNP, a poll by Savanta for the Scotsman suggests that when it comes to voting intentions for a UK Parliamentary election, the SNP’s lead over Labour, which was 21 points last June, has been completely eradicated. The poll puts the SNP and Labour on level pegging on 35% each, with the Conservatives on 19%, the Liberal Democrats on 6% and other parties on 4%. The National newspaper meanwhile reports   that with those who are undecided not included, 49% of those polled would support Scottish independence if a further referendu...

With the Labour Party conference now formally underway, three new polls will be cheering the party faithful in Liverpool. First there’s Opinium’s poll for The Observer giving Labour a 13-point lead over the Conservatives. When it comes to headline voting intentions Labour is on 42% (up 3 points from last week). The Conservatives meanwhile remained unchanged on 29%, suggesting they have had no post conference bounce. Opinium continues to show that Keir Starmer not only has a higher approval rating than Rishi Sunak but 29% of those polled said a Labour majority government was now the most likely outcome following the general election, with 23% saying it would be a hung Parliament with Labour as the biggest single party. Just 10% thought the Conservatives would win a majority at the election, with 16% suggesting they would be the biggest party in a hung Parliament. The second set of stats that will be putting smiles on the faces of those at conference is Deltapoll’s data for the M...

Looking too much into the results of one by-election to understand what it means for politics across the country can be a hazardous business.  Health warning over however, as Labour prepares for its annual conference in Liverpool, the party has every right to feel chipper following the Rutherglen and Hamilton West election, and this is why. First of all there is the share of the vote Scottish Labour secured. At almost 59%, it was not only just over 24% higher than the share it got at the 2019 election, but it is almost exactly the same as the 61% of the vote Labour won in the seat in 2010. That, of course, was the last election when Labour dominated in a UK general election in Scotland, winning 41 out of 59 seats north of the border. Then there is the swing in votes. At just over 20% from the SNP to Labour, this would, according to Professor Sir John Curtice from Strathclyde University , lead Scottish Labour to again win over 40 seats in the UK Parliament if it was replica...

As the Conservative faithful gathers in Manchester for the party’s annual conference, The Independent will be a source of glum reading. Writing for it the polling guru, Professor Sir John Curtice from Strathclyde University concludes that: “the Conservatives appear to be heading unwaveringly on a course that leads towards heavy defeat in an election that is now at most little more than a year away.” He goes on to warn that the party’s strategy over the past few weeks of finding ‘wedge’ issues such as net zero and immigration to distinguish itself from Labour is unlikely to succeed. As Curtice notes: “If the Conservatives are to regain their lost support, they need to crack the hard nut of solving Britain’s fiscal and economic crisis – a weak economy, an inflationary spiral, and poorly functioning public services. That means cutting NHS times as well as halving inflation. Trying to focus voters’ attention elsewhere, such as on so-called “wedge issues” like immigration and net zero,...