Poll to Poll

Budget week is always a big moment in the political calendar, an opportunity for any Government to take the initiative and demonstrate that its priorities align with those of the country more broadly. With the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, having delivered his budget and spending review on Wednesday, by Thursday Sky News had published polling by Opinium on how people had responded. It found that the Conservatives maintain a healthy lead when people were asked about who was best at managing the economy. 40% said Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, with 25% saying the Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer and the Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves. Overall, 39% said they approved of the Budget, with 21% disapproving of it. 28% said the Budget would have a negative impact on their finances, with 18% saying it would be positive for them. 46% said the measures announced would make no difference to them. Importantly for the Conservatives, 38% said they felt the Budget was fair, compared to 30% who th...

The prevailing wisdom throughout the recent party conference season was that Boris Johnson was master of all he surveys. And yet, delving into the polls published during the past week, the gap between the Conservatives and Labour would not be described as decisive for the Tories. According to polling conducted on 18 th October by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, the Conservatives have a lead of just 3 points, with them on 40% and Labour on 37% in respect of voting intentions for Westminster. Data compiled by Kantar Public based on a survey carried out between 14 th and 18 th October puts the Conservatives on 39%, down 4 points since its last poll in September. Labour meanwhile is on 34%, up 4 points. YouGov’s weekly poll , carried out between 20 th and 21 st October,   sees the Conservatives drop 4 points compared to last week on 37%, with Labour up 2 points on 33%. Taking on board recent polling, the New Statesman’s election calculator suggests that if they were rep...

Opinium has published its latest polling report for The Observer based on a survey conducted between the 13 th and 15 th October. When it comes to headline voting intentions for Westminster, the Conservatives are on 41%, up two points since Opinium’s last poll, whilst Labour are on 37%, up 2%, giving the Conservatives a lead of 4 points. When it comes to the ratings of the political leaders, Boris Johnson’s net approval is now  -18, which Opinium notes is the lowest it has recorded for him since the general election in 2019. Interestingly, the detailed data tables with the poll show that 24% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 now disapprove of the way that Johnson is handling his job as Prime Minister. Labour leader, Keir Starmer has a net approval rating of -8. However, he remains 6 points behind Boris Johnson on the “best Prime Minister” question. Looking at contemporary issues, 66% of those polled said they felt the Government has responded badly to the problems ...

With the Conservative faithful continuing to meet at its annual conference in Manchester, Ipsos Mori’s latest Political Monitor provides interesting food for thought for all the parties. Firstly, in respect of headline voting intentions, the Conservatives are on 39% with Labour on 36%. When it comes to satisfaction with the main two-party leaders although Boris Johnson has a net rating of -12, the Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer is performing even worse on -25. The Government as a whole has a net approval rating of -16. Looking to the next 12 months, 53% of respondents said they felt the economy will get worse, with 31% saying they thought it would improve. Ipsos Mori then go on to outline the result of a question which posed a number of attributes to those surveyed and asked which of Labour or the Conservatives they applied most to. The results were as follows: “Keeps its promises”: Conservatives 14%, Labour 18% “Understands problems facing GB”: Conservatives 30%, Labour 39% ...

Just days after YouGov published polling suggesting that the Conservative Party had lost its lead over Labour for the first time since January, Opinium’s latest   poll shows something similar. The data, based on questions asked between the 9 th and 11 th September put the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck on 38% in respect of headline voting intentions for Westminster. Opinium notes that, as with YouGov, it is the first of its polls not to show a Conservative lead since January. Opinium’s data provides insight into how those who voted Conservative in 2019 would vote now. The figures, with changes since the 13 th May which Opinium says was the peak of the party’s vaccine bounce, in brackets show that: 66% would stick with the Conservatives (-16) 5% would switch to Labour (+2) 10% would switch to another party (+5) 18% were undecided how they would vote (+8) In terms of approval ratings for the Prime Minister, Opinium notes on its twitter feed that   Bori...

Labour HQ would be forgiven for raising a smile as YouGov’s latest poll for The Times gives the party a lead over the Conservatives for the first time since January. When it comes to headline voting intentions for Westminster it puts Labour on 35%, up one point since last week. The Conservatives meanwhile are on 33%, down five points. According to figures from Electoral Calculus, if replicated universally across the country at a General Election it would see Labour as the largest single party in the House of Commons with   283 seats, up 80 from 2019. The Conservatives would lose 97, securing 268 seats. YouGov’s data also puts the Liberal Democrats on 10%, up two points from last week. This would, according to Electoral Calculus, see the party win 19 seats in a General Election, 8 more than they won in 2019. In a week that has been dominated by debate around tax and how to finance the health and social care system 46% of respondent to YouGov felt that the amount they paid ...

On the 15 th August Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, called a snap general election to take place on 20 th September. Reporting on the announcement, Reuters noted: “Trudeau, 49, is betting that high vaccination rates against the virus and a post-pandemic economic rebound will help him prolong and strengthen his grip on power.” With just weeks to go until polling day however, could Trudeau live to regret his decision to take the country to the polls? If data released over the past week is to be believed quite possibly, as the opposition Conservative Party seems to have taken a lead. According to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s poll tracker the Conservatives, led by Erin O’Toole, are now leading on 34.1%, followed by the Liberal Party under the leadership of the Prime Minister on 31.2%. The New Democrat’s, led by Jagmeet Singh, are, according to the tracker, on 20.1%. Explaining the support for the Conservatives, the Financial Times has written : “Many...