Poll to Poll

In the rush to figure out what the local election results a few weeks ago might have meant if there had been a general election, one crucial piece of the jigsaw was missing, namely Scotland which did not have council elections. YouGov however this week sought to rectify this, with modelling which would spell bad news for the SNP and good news for Scottish Labour. According to the new Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model, the SNP are on track to win 27 seats in Scotland in the House of Commons at the UK general election, down from the 48 it won in 2019. Scottish Labour meanwhile appear on course to win 23 seats, up from the 1 it won at the last election. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats meanwhile are on course to win 4 seats each in Scotland.   However, the modelling comes with an important health warning. As YouGov notes: “With any projection of Scotland must come a large slice of caveat cake: Scotland has one of the highest concentrations of mar...

On the 20 th May the Conservatives reached a milestone moment. It reached the point of having been in power for as long as Labour were from 1997 ‑ 2010. However, according to YouGov, it did not mark a moment to cheer for Number 10 or Conservative HQ. According to an online poll by YouGov, asked who they thought   had achieved more during their time in office, 41% said the Labour governments of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Just 21% said the Conservative and Conservative-led governments of David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. 38% said they didn’t know. The latest YouGov poll for The Times continues to give Labour a commanding lead over the Tories. It puts Labour on 43% when it comes to headline voting intentions compared to the Conservatives on 25%.   Asked who they felt the best Prime Minister would be, 30% said Keir Starmer compared to 24% preferring Rishi Sunak. In a week which has seen the Conservative Party consumed by a debate ...

Off the back of last week’s local elections, the polling guru, Professor Sir John Curtice suggested that had this been a national election, the projected national share of the vote would have given Labour a 9 point lead over the Conservatives. According to the data, Labour would have been on 35% of the vote with the Conservatives on 26%, the Liberal Democrats on 20% and other parties on 19%. With the dust now settled, writing for The Independent, Sir John suggests that based on last week’s results, Labour is on course for a majority in the next House of Commons of just one seat. Noting that results collected by the BBC suggested that had it been a general election Labour would be ahead in the key parliamentary seats of Calder Valley, Colne Valley, Dewsbury, Ipswich, and Plymouth Moor View, Sir John notes: “On average the swing from Conservative to Labour since the last general election in these key marginals was 12 per cent – precisely the swing that on the current constituency...

As many people across the country prepare to head to the polls for local council elections this Thursday, how best should we judge the performance of the parties when the results come through? One marker will be how the parties do compared to the last time many of the council seats up for election this week were contested in 2019. It was a period when both Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May were both unpopular, with the process of leaving the EU deadlocked in Parliament. Just months after the elections Boris Johnson would become Prime Minister.   According to a note by the House of Commons Library, in 2019, both Labour and the Conservatives were tided on 31% of the vote each, with the Liberal Democrats on 17%. Another point of reference will be how the parties do compared to last year’s local elections when Boris Johnson’s popularity was dwindling amidst the ongoing ‘partygate’ allegations. Labour secured 35% of the vote compared to the Conservatives on 33% and the Liberal Democr...

As the SNP continues to feel the shocks of the ongoing scandal around the alleged mismanagement of the party’s finances, new polling of Scottish voters by YouGov suggests a slump in the party’s support at Holyrood. When it comes to headline voting intentions for the constituency vote for the Scottish Parliament, 38% say they would vote SNP, down from 43% last month. Scottish Labour meanwhile are on 30%, up from 26%. The Conservatives are on 16%, pretty much unchanged from the 15% it polled last month. For the regional list vote for the Scottish Parliament, YouGov finds that 26% of Scots voters would vote Labour, up from 25% last month, whilst the SNP are on 30%, down from 35%. The Scottish Conservatives are on 17%, up from 16% in March. When it comes to headline voting intentions for Westminster, Labour are on 28% with the SNP on 37% and the Conservatives on 17%. Asked how they would vote in a future independence referendum, 54% of those questioned said they would oppose indep...

As MPs return from their Easter break tomorrow, Opinium’s latest poll for The Observer gives Labour a 14 point lead over the Conservatives. When it comes to headline voting intentions, 42% of those questioned said they would vote Labour, compared to 28% opting for the Conservatives.   The poll gives Rishi Sunak a net approval rating of -12 with Keir Starmer on -3. Asked who they think would make the best Prime Minister, 27% said Sunak compared to 28% preferring Starmer. Asked about which party would be best had handling various issues, Labour have a 1-point lead over the Conservatives when it comes to handling the economy and have bigger leads on most other issues. The Conservative’s biggest lead is on defence. YouGov this week also published data giving Labour a 17 point lead with 44% saying they would vote for the party compared to 27% preferring the Conservatives. YouGov continues: “When it comes to which party leader Britons think would make the best prime minister, K...

As MPs head off for a two week Easter break and begin an intense period of campaigning ahead of the local elections, Opinium has published its latest fortnightly polling for The Observer providing a handy end of term report card. When it comes to headline voting intentions, Labour enjoy a 15-point lead over the Conservatives. Labour is on 44% compared to the Conservatives on 29%.   Asked to what extent they approved or disapproved of the way Rishi Sunak is handling his job as Prime Minister, 28% said ‘approve’ compared to 43% saying ‘disapprove’. In contrast, 31% of those questioned said they approved of the way Keir Starmer was handling his job as Leader of the Labour Party compared to 33% saying their disapproved. Questioned about what they felt the likely outcome would be of the next General Election, just 8% think it will result in an outright Conservative majority with 14% predicting a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. 30% said they felt a L...